# Can Ukraine Win? Drones, Russian Oil Refineries and European Aid - Original post: https://www.twitter.com/i/status/2116443943323992520 - Source account: [@JustAJaneJ](https://x.com/JustAJaneJ) - Source language: English - Duration: 4:51 - Published: 2026-11-13 - Canonical URL: https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid ## Transcript [0:00](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid) Can the Ukraine win against Russia? Sure. [0:04](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=4) It is winning right now. Because it's able to defend itself. [0:08](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=8) Ukrainians have developed all these different kinds of drones, and I get it, Starlink's, uh, messing up with some of their interceptors, but they've been developing, uh, ballistic missiles that are gonna happen rapidly. [0:19](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=19) And, oh, the United States, um, by Musk doing the kill switch on Tar-- Starlink has made it so no one's gonna be serious, is gonna be buying Starlink. India was thinking of it. [0:28](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=28) It's like, no, not if in the middle of the war you're gonna turn it off. And what is it? [0:32](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=32) The shares for whatever the French alternate company is, has gone way up in the last few days. [0:37](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=37) You can check whether I got this right. But people are looking at it going, "Okay, so Elon, maybe short-term gain, but long-time loss on all of this." [0:43](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=43) And then for US Patriot missile systems, if Franklin Delano Roosevelt had been president during the Biden administration when the second phase of the Ukraine war kicked off, he would have, uh, ma-- gotten that company to mass produce it and saying, [0:55](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=55) "Look, you're not gonna make, be making your money on unit cost. [0:57](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=57) You're gonna be making it on the quantity." [0:59](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=59) But people are saying, you know, with Trump turning his back on Zelenskyy and Putin being in bed with China and President Xi there, Zelenskyy has no chance. [1:07](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=67) No. That's bull. Uh, no, he's, um, developing his own, uh, missile systems. [1:13](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=73) Russia can't replace, it can't afford to replace all these refineries. [1:16](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=76) It's based on Western tech. The oil refineries? Yeah, um, uh, I, I can't remember what percentage of the refining capacity that Russia's down to. [1:23](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=83) I don't know whether it's less than half now, slightly more than half. [1:26](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=86) You can Google and get the data. And then, um, the Ukrainians have gone after Yandex and whatever their, their, their equivalent of Goo- uh, Google and, um, blowing away these things. [1:36](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=96) Russia has lost up to 50% of its operating oil refining capacity. [1:39](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=99) That's why I was telling you I didn't know, 'cause it, it varies, right? [1:41](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=101) They start fixing it, then another one gets hit. [1:44](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=104) And, uh, Ukraine, and Ukraine's doing that on, on its lonesome, no Starlink involved in that, just 'cause it's over Russia, Russian territory, and they're developing stuff more rapidly. And who's gonna be buying all these? [1:53](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=113) 'Cause they're producing more than enough of some of these things. [1:55](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=115) They're gonna be the go-to defense supplier, 'cause our s- the stuff in the United States is way too expensive. [2:00](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=120) And this Patriot stuff, uh, this is why it's just breathtakingly incompetent. [2:03](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=123) The fact that we have a shortage of these interceptors and this, uh, fighting's been going on for N number of years. [2:07](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=127) Franklin Delano Roosevelt, uh, started telling people how many tens of thousands of airplanes he wanted, and people thought he was nuts, and he got the businessmen around the table, "What do you need? [2:15](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=135) You gonna make it happen?" It happened. Do you think if funding does dry up for Zelenskyy, external funding from Europe and from the United States? [2:23](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=143) I don't think it will from Europe. Why? 'Cause Europe, um, Russia will be coming for the rest of Europe. [2:28](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=148) It will be coming. They are on death ground too with Putin's little model. [2:32](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=152) Think about how European attitudes on security changed on a dime because of the 2022 war. [2:38](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=158) That hasn't changed. And I don't know what... [2:41](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=161) There, there's tremendous disinformation that good old Vlad the Bad is putting out to get people thinking that he's winning. [2:47](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=167) He's not. He's wrecking his country. So, I have no idea whether his, his little friends will, uh, put something special in his breakfast some morning. Probably not. [2:55](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=175) Uh, he's under enormous stress at 74. I don't know. [2:58](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=178) I wouldn't want to be living with his stress levels. [3:00](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=180) Wrong age for it. And, uh, alternatively, at what point do the young men at the front lines riot? [3:08](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=188) At what point, uh, do they take their guns and just go after their commanders? [3:13](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=193) I mean, we saw that almost happen, didn't we, with, um- Uh, Prigozhin. [3:15](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=195) Prigozhin, yeah. Yeah. Um, at what point does that happen? [3:18](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=198) And also, when, when you think about these kids that are being sent to the front, they're only children. [3:23](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=203) This is not Russia in Stalin's day, the pre-birth control Russia, right? They're-- These are very special young men that are going to the front. [3:32](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=212) They're the only ones. And there's also at what point that their mothers put their foot down. [3:38](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=218) The economic cost of the war in Ukraine on Russia has been profound, shifting the nation's economy towards a high-risk war footing, where record defense spending, consuming roughly 40% of the national budget, boosts artificial GDP numbers while draining funds from health, [3:50](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=230) education, and civil infrastructure. Yep. [3:52](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=232) The heavy state spending, coupled with acute labor shortages caused by military mobilization and the emigration- Yes ... of hundreds of thousands of skilled professionals- Yep ... triggered persistent inflation and forced the Central Bank of Russia [4:00](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=240) of hundreds of thousands of skilled professionals- Yep ... triggered persistent inflation and forced the Central Bank of Russia to hike interest rates above 20%. [4:05](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=245) Simultaneously, Russia lost its lucrative European energy export market, saw 300 billion in central bank reserves frozen by Western sanctions, and faced severe domestic fuel short-shortages following repeated long-range drone strikes to its oil refineries, which have caused oil refinery capacity to drop by up to 50%. [4:21](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=261) So that's called winning a war? I don't think so. [4:23](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=263) They can't go on like that forever. No, uh, they can't. [4:27](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=267) So, uh, but as long as Vladimir Putin lives, he will keep doing it. [4:32](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=272) And apparently, his cronies there want to go-- are gonna go down with the ship. [4:36](https://www.translate.mom/transcript/yiBPlSMidSte/en/can-ukraine-win-drones-russian-oil-refineries-and-european-aid?t=276) The off-ramp would be, um, uh, for the, the West under the table to offer them something like a safe passage out with however many billions they need in return for giving Vladimir Putin a retirement plan.