Russian → English transcript

But if they want, it can be done — when it comes to Saudi Arabia, everyone

keeps shouting that they can ramp up sharply within

two weeks.

So if India wants to stop buying Russian

purchases, it will be able to do so, and there will be

someone to offer them to.

It might not be that cheap, but in principle

it can.

And India will now weigh how much it will lose on

more expensive oil compared with Russian oil with a smaller

discount.

For how much it will save on lower freight costs when supplying

to the US.

This is a calculation, it is not a quick matter, but it will be done,

and depending on that, Indian state-owned

refineries will be instructed to buy Russian oil or

not buy.

Apparently, it is possible that they will be instructed not

to buy.

And then the figures you quoted, 250 billion,

These are also phony figures. They will not be collected either.

But this means that Russia is entering a situation of tragic

decline in government revenue.

You have to understand that people say, 'So what, the state's revenues

are gone — what does it matter.'

Again, people understand very poorly how the economy

of Russia is structured.

Russia's economy is the state's economy.

Let's show people some figures, because people don't always

understand this.

Let's start with the simple fact that in Russia more than 50 percent of the employed

work for the state.

They are, in one way or another, public-sector workers. They work in various

institutions of the budgetary sphere, and the payment of their wages

depends on whether the Ministry of Finance has money or not.

In Russia: teachers, security forces, the military, federal, 'yanvarnye'.

Of course, these are the most common occupations in Russia.

What there doesn't depend on the budget?

Cashiers, loaders, and drivers do not depend on the state budget.

And the security guards at Pyaterochka.

Yes, but they depend on whether public-sector workers

have the money to go there and buy goods.

If they don't have money, then these people in mass professions

are left without work.

Next, in Russia there's a very curious question: what share

of the state-owned economy is there overall?

That is, what share of Russia's GDP is the public sector?

There have been heated debates about this for many, many

years.

People at the ANH estimated that they had 50% of GDP,

the state budget and the public sector.

The scariest figure came from another institution, namely

the Accounts Chamber, under Stepashin.

They then put it at 70%.

Well, 70 or 50 — that is, you have to add.

They calculated, I think, by revenue, by the profits of companies,

that were going under.

Yes, yes, yes.

70%.

That's a terrifying number.

But whether it's 70 or 50, you have to understand that if budget revenues decline

it's not just a problem for the Ministry of Finance, it's a problem

for the entire Russian economy.

Inflows immediately shrink, orders fall, employment drops and

people's incomes across the economy decline.

In other words, it's the collapse of the budget, the collapse of Russia's economy

and of the entire population of Russia.

So, when we said that Russia could

find itself slipping back into the '90s, and it's not only

us saying that — Andrei Yakovlev, my colleague, also says it, who

seems, in my view, to be quite well versed

in the Russian economy.

I realize people think that's an unbelievable claim,

how we could go from Russia in 2025 to some kind of '90s, but actually,

Again, they say, look, we, at such a low price

We would end up in a 1990s-type situation, with the collapse of the USSR and a very severe period

in the 1990s in the Russian Federation.

All the problems of the 1990s were not only connected to the fact

that there were market reforms, but above all to the fact that

oil prices were very low.

If oil prices had not been so low, then Gaidar's

reforms would not have been so painful.

They would have been partly offset by high oil revenues,

money would have spread through the economy, there would not have been

such a collapse.

But the restructuring of the economic system coincided

with very low oil prices.

But then reforms stopped and the country decayed, and now,

when the money does not arrive, Russia's rotten economic

system simply will not cope and will begin to fall apart.

This is a terrible prospect for Russians, but the Central Bank is now

saying this, it wants to protect

He protected himself from accusations that he hadn't warned by warning.