English → Japanese transcript

Well, it went off in many different directions as he is inclined to do, and... Well, it went off in many different directions as he is inclined to do, and... uh, but there was one big message for the Europeans in particular, uh, but there was one big message for the Europeans in particular, uh, but there was one big message for the Europeans in particular,

but for all of us, which is that after but for all of us, which is that after but for all of us, which is that after having threatened to do whatever was required to acquire Greenland, having threatened to do whatever was required to acquire Greenland,

including using military force, including using military force, and even using mafioso language that we're going to either do this the hard way or and even using mafioso language that we're going to either do this the hard way or and even using mafioso language that we're going to either do this the hard way or

the easy way, the easy way, he took the gun off the table and said we're not going to... ...uh, use military he took the gun off the table and said we're not going to... ...uh, use military he took the gun off the table and said we're not going to... ...uh, use military

force to coerce force to coerce Greenland or Denmark. Greenland or Denmark. Greenland or Denmark.

Now again, it's a pretty strange world in which an ally has been threatening to use Now again, it's a pretty strange world in which an ally has been threatening to use military force against another ally. So that world we're already in. military force against another ally. So that world we're already in. military force against another ally. So that world we're already in.

military force against another ally. So that world we're already in. That fact has already occurred. That fact has already occurred. But the fact that he took it off the table, I think is a big and significant factor. But the fact that he took it off the table, I think is a big and significant factor.

But the fact that he took it off the table, I think is a big and significant factor. But the fact that he took it off the table, I think is a big and significant factor. Second point, he made very clear, Second point, he made very clear, Second point, he made very clear,

over and over, he is really serious about acquiring Greenland. And so, uh, over and over, he is really serious about acquiring Greenland. And so, uh, he says Greenland is just a big chunk of ice, he says Greenland is just a big chunk of ice, he says Greenland is just a big chunk of ice,

it's relevant for the US and not particularly relevant for Denmark or it's relevant for the US and not particularly relevant for Denmark or for the Greenlanders. It's, he says, for the Greenlanders. It's, he says, for the Greenlanders. It's, he says,

needed for American national security. Myself, I don't know the... needed for American national security. Myself, I don't know the... I cannot see the argument for that, but that's his claim. I cannot see the argument for that, but that's his claim. I cannot see the argument for that, but that's his claim.

And that the Europeans have never been grateful to the US for all the things that And that the Europeans have never been grateful to the US for all the things that And that the Europeans have never been grateful to the US for all the things that we've done for them. And then he has a litany about the fact, we've done for them. And then he has a litany about the fact,

we've done for them. And then he has a litany about the fact, which is roughly correct, that the US has essentially been the defensive shield for which is roughly correct, that the US has essentially been the defensive shield for which is roughly correct, that the US has essentially been the defensive shield for Europe ever since World War II, and the Europeans have been free

Europe ever since World War II, and the Europeans have been free riders to some considerable extent. So they owe us something. riders to some considerable extent. So they owe us something. riders to some considerable extent. So they owe us something. So they should remember all the good things we did for them,

So they should remember all the good things we did for them, So they should remember all the good things we did for them, and what they can do for us is give us Greenland. And then he said, and what they can do for us is give us Greenland. And then he said, and what they can do for us is give us Greenland. And then he said,

uh, uh, I'm still thinking this is going to work out okay, uh, uh, I'm still thinking this is going to work out okay, and if the Europeans find a way to and if the Europeans find a way to fulfill my demand, I'll re... I'll be grateful.

fulfill my demand, I'll re... I'll be grateful. And then he said, but if they don't, I'll remember. And then he said, but if they don't, I'll remember. Well, the... the thing that struck me and I'm sure it struck you as well, Well, the... the thing that struck me and I'm sure it struck you as well,

Well, the... the thing that struck me and I'm sure it struck you as well, and this will segue back into... ...our topic for this evening and this will segue back into... ...our topic for this evening and this will segue back into... ...our topic for this evening which is US-China relations and where the two countries will land,

which is US-China relations and where the two countries will land, which is US-China relations and where the two countries will land, is uh, how far he mentioned or didn't mention is uh, how far he mentioned or didn't mention is uh, how far he mentioned or didn't mention

China throughout the speech. In any case, let's get back to the topic at hand. Just one footnote on that one. I think for those that, especially since on China, Just one footnote on that one. I think for those that, especially since on China, so he only referred to three or four leaders in the whole speech. so he only referred to three or four leaders in the whole speech.

In the case of the Europeans, for both Macron and for our In the case of the Europeans, for both Macron and for our In the case of the Europeans, for both Macron and for our Canadian colleague, he had very negative things to say, Canadian colleague, he had very negative things to say,

Canadian colleague, he had very negative things to say, basically demeaning in effect. But when he said Xi, basically demeaning in effect. But when he said Xi, basically demeaning in effect. But when he said Xi, his eyes light up a little bit and he says, "I have a great relationship with Xi."

his eyes light up a little bit and he says, "I have a great relationship with Xi." "I greatly respect Xi. He's brilliant." So he was off on that track. "I greatly respect Xi. He's brilliant." So he was off on that track. "I greatly respect Xi. He's brilliant." So he was off on that track. So he clearly distinguishes

So he clearly distinguishes between Xi and his relationship with Xi, and his relationship with a... a country and a leader that happens to be our neighbor, Canada, or France, a country and a leader that happens to be our neighbor, Canada, or France, a country and a leader that happens to be our neighbor, Canada, or France,

which was the country that came to our rescue in the Revolution. which was the country that came to our rescue in the Revolution. Uh, so I would say that's interesting just as we're trying to grade... Uh, so I would say that's interesting just as we're trying to grade... ...or gauge him

...or gauge him on his relationships with other leaders. So as... as we look to... on his relationships with other leaders. So as... as we look to... to what will happen this year, to what will happen this year,

2026, as far as we can and maybe a little bit beyond, it's... it's quite stark 2026, as far as we can and maybe a little bit beyond, it's... it's quite stark 2026, as far as we can and maybe a little bit beyond, it's... it's quite stark that it's now sort of nine years since your book on the... ...Thucydides Trap. that it's now sort of nine years since your book on the... ...Thucydides Trap.

that it's now sort of nine years since your book on the... ...Thucydides Trap. Um, and maybe if we frame how things have evolved since then, Um, and maybe if we frame how things have evolved since then, the first Trump administration, uh, the first Trump administration, uh,

and then the Biden administration, and now uh, second... and then the Biden administration, and now uh, second... and then the Biden administration, and now uh, second... the first year of the Trump administration, how have you seen uh, the US-China the first year of the Trump administration, how have you seen uh, the US-China

sort of dynamic evolve in that time, sort of dynamic evolve in that time, that will give you some sense of where we're headed in 2026? that will give you some sense of where we're headed in 2026? that will give you some sense of where we're headed in 2026?

I have a difficulty with professors 'cause they... they talk in, I have a difficulty with professors 'cause they... they talk in, as one of my colleagues said, 50-minute soundbites. So let me just be very brief. as one of my colleagues said, 50-minute soundbites. So let me just be very brief. as one of my colleagues said, 50-minute soundbites. So let me just be very brief.

I would say Thucydides nailed... nailed it. Okay. I would say Thucydides nailed... nailed it. Okay. I would say Thucydides nailed... nailed it. Okay. If we're trying to think about the relationship between the US and China, If we're trying to think about the relationship between the US and China,

If we're trying to think about the relationship between the US and China, Thucydides' insight... Thucydides' insight... ...is the central starting point. ...is the central starting point.

And that insight is that a rapidly rising China, And that insight is that a rapidly rising China, that seriously threatens America's... a colossal ruling US, that seriously threatens America's... a colossal ruling US, and its position at the top of every pecking order, this... this basically shift,

rapid shift in the seesaw of power, rapid shift in the seesaw of power, rapid shift in the seesaw of power, is discombobulating is discombobulating

the entire relationship and actually the international order... the entire relationship and actually the international order... ...that was reflected before that. And in ways, ...that was reflected before that. And in ways, ...that was reflected before that. And in ways,

as Thucydides explained very well, as Thucydides explained very well, as Thucydides explained very well, that uh, make it... that magnify misunderstandings, and mul... that uh, make it... that magnify misunderstandings, and mul...

multiply miscalculations, multiply miscalculations, and amplify incidents or accidents that would otherwise be inconsequential, that often end in a war. So I would say his picture is still right. that often end in a war. So I would say his picture is still right.

that often end in a war. So I would say his picture is still right. These are structural realities These are structural realities These are structural realities that Xi now and Trump have to grapple... grapple with.

that Xi now and Trump have to grapple... grapple with. And the promising thing in this context And the promising thing in this context And the promising thing in this context is that Trump

is that Trump is that Trump understands war is terrible. Now again, that's a good thing for a president to understand. And nuclear Now again, that's a good thing for a president to understand. And nuclear

war is really, really, really bad. war is really, really, really bad. And that's a good thing for a president to understand. And that's a good thing for a president to understand.