Iran's New Anti-Ship Missile Test

Iran says that, for the first time, it test-fired

an anti-ship missile over a U.S. warship,

and it was a new type.

So this new missile was essentially

a show of force over the U.S. military's head.

What's new about it? Is it really, as Iran

announced, of milestone

significance?

Uh, it provided very few details, uh,

but combined with the USS Lincoln's appearance at Chabahar Port in Iran,

looking like a rusty

ghost ship, I estimate Iran will amplify this

effect.

Uh, two aspects are worth watching.

First, it was from above.

Second, it was an anti-ship missile. So,

compared with its previous

subsonic anti-ship missiles, its range and power

should have increased significantly.

Uh, if it uses a new warhead

and a new destructive method, uh,

there are roughly several points worth noting.

First, it could be an electromagnetic-pulse

weapon. Uh, if it uses the previous semi-armor-piercing

warhead, including other warheads, uh,

to attack a large carrier battle group,

it would have to strike from the side, and the area

near the waterline would be the key target, including the deck.

If it is now being tested

from above, uh, a typical trajectory would fly

over the target. Uh, based on the current

result, it cannot be ruled out that it is a soft-kill

weapon. Previously, large quantities

of explosives, including other anti-

ship warheads, were used to damage targets.

Now, if it releases a high-intensity

electromagnetic pulse, uh, although it cannot destroy the deck

or damage the ship's structure, this micro-

wave energy can damage precision

electromagnetic components.

We know that missiles,

destroyers, and aircraft carriers alike

have large amounts of electronic equipment.

Their network systems, including core

components, once struck by an electromagnetic pulse,

will be permanently disabled.

So it cannot be ruled out that Iran will test a new, uh,

newly energized destructive weapon equipped

here.

In addition, it also cannot be ruled out

that its range and power have increased.

As we have seen before, Iran's

anti-ship missiles are generally subsonic cruise missiles.

So if, in the next step, ballistic anti-ship missiles

with ranges exceeding one thousand

kilometers are combined with new warheads,

their strike effectiveness will also be significantly improved.

Recently, uh, this new Qassem

missile was unveiled. This missile has a solid-

fuel engine and a range of 1,200 kilometers,

equipped with optical guidance.

It cannot be ruled out that it can also strike aircraft carriers.

So, from the current perspective, the shift from passive deterrence

to active deterrence

shows that Iran's strike capability is not limited to aircraft carriers

at sea and bases in the Middle East,

European bases may also become

- targets of Iranian attacks.

The U.S. military has always claimed to have the world's

most stringent information security system,

so why has there still been such a large-scale

information leak,

especially a crisis involving location leaks?

Is it only related to leaks in personnel's

- daily movement patterns? Well, I think this time

this U.S. military information leak

was mainly exposed through civilian

fitness apps, mobile data,

and social media.

- Public information and social media

were what exposed it. So,

in fact, Iran, through

this public information,

can determine the extent to which personnel

are concentrated, including the size of bases,

their locations, and so on.

Well, how should I put it,

this is actually a widespread

problem. That is, it exposes how, under

modern warfare conditions, public

information, namely open-source information,

has already become a major source

of intelligence.

So this also, on the other hand, exposes

problems in U.S. military management

- in this regard. Had they not

- foreseen it? Well, obviously,

it was not foreseen, it was

completely unexpected.

I believe the U.S. military's entire

information system

is managed quite tightly,

especially when it involves more sensitive matters,

such as missiles,

their precise locations, and so on.

Those are certainly handled very strictly.

But when it comes to these civilian

things, I am afraid

they did not realize

it could be this serious. So this actually

serves as a warning to everyone and

to all the major powers

that, in the future,

in information warfare and intelligence warfare,

public, open-source information will likely

be an important source of intelligence.