Global Economic Scenarios and Oil Prices

The problem now, as I mentioned, is the question of today's lecture about what might happen in the world and the global economy

We are now talking about scenarios, and these are not forecasts

Because no one can predict

what Trump might do tomorrow, nor can anyone predict

what the Iranian Revolutionary Guard will do, and therefore, the variables are many

and unpredictable, so we have no choice but to use the scenario method

Speaking of which, in the event that Saudi oil does not flow to Asia

even for a short period, the issue of delayed shipments alone will raise oil prices significantly

According to our estimates, if the flow of oil from Bab al-Mandab is completely stopped

including Russian oil, Brent crude prices will rise

from its current level of around $91 to over $120

But if the flow of Russian oil continues and Asia loses Saudi oil

prices will rise above $100

But it is also very clear that there will be a strong military reaction

against the Houthis, and this might change the equation, and we do not know its effects yet

But in general, the rise in oil prices once again, on top of all that happened and on top of

all the difficulties suffered especially by poor countries, rich countries

that provide subsidies cannot provide these subsidies for long periods

of time, especially since most of it is borrowed, borrowed money.

So they cannot build up these debts either, and the whole world in general is suffering.

As for the United States, as I mentioned, there is suffering in the short term,

but the benefits of closing Hormuz are very large, especially in the long term, and we have talked about them in the past.

So are we really heading now towards a major economic crisis?

The answer is yes, if the crisis in Hormuz continues as it is now.

And what we see in Bab al-Mandab, if it continues, there will be a major global economic crisis.

The issue now is, what is the solution? What is the solution?

Of course, there are different political opinions that I won't get into,

because there are those who support the idea of negotiation and there are those who support the idea of,

My brother, that's enough, this is war, finish them off and be done with it.

This is

the opinion of some.

The problem is bigger and more complex than that

If you think that the Iranian regime is divided against itself

Let's say we went back to the memorandum of understanding between the Americans and the Iranians and what was mentioned in it

There is agreement among most experts who read the memorandum that it favors the Iranians

But why does it favor the Iranians? There is an explanation for that

Because the US government is convinced that there is an extremist group that will ruin it for everyone, and therefore,

so that they and others can see that the other negotiating group will win,

so they gave them what they gave them in this way.

But it is completely clear that they misjudged the situation