Election Vote Analysis and Predictions

I couldn't sleep without having done this first, man.

I wasn't going to be able to. See this? TSE, bro. TSE, bro.

I got all the numbers from here, okay? Look, 50 million, 58 million, eligible voters, blank,

null, abstentions, first and second rounds. Let's go to the spreadsheet.

Look at this, man. Let's do some quick reasoning here.

This was all the voting that voted for Lula, Flávio,

the entire third

way, this line here, look, I'm even going to leave it

like this, look,

which is only the total for the third way.

So, adding all of this up, open the formula, and you'll understand.

Yeah, Lula's votes, Flávio's votes, the entire third way

added together, blank, null, and abstentions, then you'll get the exact total, look.

You see the formula, this is a number pasted from the…

from the website of, of, of

the TSE,

all right? So you’re going to— then we come here to the runoff.

Incredibly, you had Lula’s magic here, right?

Lula’s—or Cristiano Zanin’s, if you prefer—Flávio’s votes.

Then you have a drop in blank votes, in Lula’s votes, and a drop in abstentions,

in

all of them. The “difference” column. Lula, up until then, had

all this many more votes. Flávio had one more vote.

But there’s a very important point: these guys here,

were new votes that emerged, right?

In other words, this difference here, in blank votes, null votes,

right, and abstentions, first, is the person who, in the first round,

voted blank, and in the second, voted for someone.

Same thing for null votes, the person voted null in the first round,

in the second, they voted

someone. And abstention, the guy who didn't go, then in the second round he went and

voted for

someone,

right?

Okay. These guys added up here, I even put it here, look,

are almost five million votes, okay? I put it here, look.

Let's go to this table here.

What's this number here? You're going to say, "Fuck,

what is this number?" Let's

open up the formula.

It's the sum, we're talking about the second round.

Let's assume that in the first round,

whoever voted for Lula in the first, voted in the second.

It's ver— man, that doesn't exist, okay? Whoever voted for Lula in the first voted in the

second. And whoever voted straight for Flávio in the first, voted in the

second, got it? Let's start from that premise.

Then the thing is, they're fighting over the remaining votes.

So those 14 million votes were precisely, look, it's the whole...

third-party votes, plus the difference,

you get it, from those who voted now. These new, new votes here

showed up, five million votes here, plus the, the, the

9.3 here, that makes 14. Then comes the, the magic, man.

You get it? New exercise: let’s assume that for Lula to have done

this here,

man, he would, he would have had to get 100%, 100%

of the, the, the, the, the, difference in blank, null, and abstention votes,

plus 60% of the third-party votes.

Yeah, this here is the, the rest, see? This here will total the, the,

the votes he got

more, right?

Do you, do you, do you realize what, what that means?

100%

of the difference in blank votes, whoever voted blank, that is, the guy who voted blank in the

first round voted for Lula in the second.

The guy who voted null in the first round voted for Lula in the second.

And whoever didn’t go vote

In the first round, it got there and 100% voted for Lula.

The difference from that, from his growth, is 60% of the third

option.

That's it, okay? This here was the growth that I even put up,

which is precisely, compared to that,

how much— the, the extra votes he got from Lu—

meaning, of the entire share

that was available, considering that premise we

talked about, that whoever

voted in the first round for each of them also voted in the second.

So, of the entire available share, Lula got

73.6% of the available share.

And I'll say it again, man, five million people, th— I said,

man,

this thing wasn't going to work, bro.

Five, they got five million votes from

blank and null votes,

bro.

You get it?

That's it, man. And even so, he would have had to get 60% of the

third option.

There's another possibility too, right?

There's another possibility, which is,

another scenario in which Lula took Flávio's vote.

Even if he grows here, let's say he did grow,

because a, a small part of this group voted, voted

for him, you understand? A small part of this group voted for him,

right? Another small part of the third way voted

for him too.

But for that to have happened, he would have had to lose votes from the

first-round group.

You get it, man?

It doesn't

add up.

Just this fact here,

the guy, for him to have gotten this number here, it was

100%

of, of the entire difference in blank ballots, invalid ballots, and abstentions, plus

60%

of the third way.

Do, do, do you understand what that means

here?