Analysis of Likud Primaries and Netanyahu's Strategy

We’re with Yehezkel Matzgal, our commentator, on what Likud members are saying about the list and the moves

that still

remain for Netanyahu to shape it.

If there’s one word, Yoni, that can describe the primaries that ended early this

morning in Likud,

that word is brutal. There has never been anything like it in Israel.

Four ministers are going home, eleven MKs, one of them the chair of the

Finance Committee. All of them were simply ejected

from the list. And one more thing characterizes these primaries,

they contain no

new names. No new MK was elected thanks to

these primaries. It speaks to the intensity of the struggle for survival.

Now, you have to understand, from Netanyahu’s perspective, he is assembling the list in stages.

The first stage ended successfully for him, he cleared out people who were problematic

for him. He blocked Tally Gotliv deep at the end

of the second ten, but that’s avoiding evil from his perspective.

Doing good is supposedly the reserved slots meant to complete that

facelift of Likud. Yet, anyone who thinks

Anyone expecting big names here will likely be disappointed for several reasons.

First, Netanyahu has only three senior slots left after

he already used some for Katz and Gideon Sa'ar.

So he actually has two reserved slots in the top ten and one more reserved slot

in the second ten. But more significant than that is the fact

that Likud polls show that bringing in big names doesn't bring in seats.

Netanyahu is in talks, for example, with a professor in academia,

not a name that would mean much to people, but beyond that, it's quite possible that

these reserved slots will be used to solve Netanyahu's problem,

which is far more serious than the Likud list, namely the splits on the right.

So it's possible, Yoni, that Netanyahu will use some of these slots to

entice the parties to unite with each other. At the moment, a union between

Smotrich and Ben-Gvir doesn't really seem to be in the cards. The two—

the bride and groom—are not really interested, to put it mildly, after their first chapter.

But Netanyahu also has the Feiglin problem.

He has the Zelekha problem, the Avivi problem,

First and foremost, he has the Winter problem,

who, by all indications, is about to announce the formation of a new party

and isn't really committed to Netanyahu.

So it's quite possible that those reserved slots will serve Netanyahu in this matter,

and it's also possible

that these reserved slots will be pushed back a bit, since their whole purpose was to keep Gotliv

from getting into the top ten. Once she's made it in, people like Amir Ohana will ask him, "Why should I

be in spot

seven? Move me up to third, and we'll solve the political problems

with reserved slots

further down the list, further down in the top ten."