English transcript

As long as civilization keeps advancing,

we will have AI and robotics at very large scale.

I think that's pretty much the only thing

that's going to solve for the U.S. debt crisis,

because currently the U.S. debt is insanely high,

and the interest payments on the debt

exceed the entire military budget of the United States,

just the interest payments.

And that's, at least in the short term,

going to continue to increase.

So I think actually the only thing that can solve

for the debt situation is AI and robotics.

But it will more than...

It might cause...

I guess it probably would cause significant deflation,

because deflation or inflation is really the ratio

of goods and services produced

to the change in the money supply.

So if goods and services output increases faster than money supply,

you will have deflation.

If goods and services decreases...

If real goods and services output increases slower

than the money supply, you have inflation.

It's that simple.

People sometimes try to make it more complicated than that,

but it just isn't.

So if you have AI and robotics

and a dramatic increase in the output of goods and services,

probably you will have deflation.

That seems likely.

Because you simply won't be able to increase the money supply

as fast as you can increase the output of goods and services.

Supply is a real hazard here.

Should we do something about it?

Maybe we can convince it to go somewhere else.

Entice it elsewhere.

It actually left, I think.

Oh, no, it's back.

Maybe it's attracted to the light.

No, it wants some coffee.

Mine is over.

If deflation is inevitable because of AI...

It's most likely the case, yeah.

Why do we have inflation again all over in society today?

Has AI not led to increased productivity yet?

AI has not yet made enough of an impact on productivity

to increase the goods and services faster

than the increase in the money supply.

So the US is increasing money supply quite substantially

with deficits that are on the order of $2 trillion.

So you have to have goods and services output increase more than that

in order to not have inflation.

So we're not there yet, but if you say,

how long would it take us to get there?

I think it's three years.

Probably three years before.

In three years or less, my guess is goods and services output

will exceed the rate of inflation.

Goods and services growth will exceed money supply growth

in about three years.

Maybe after those three years, you have deflation and then inflation.