russian → English transcript

So what do we understand now about Russia from that same point of view? That Russia has a huge

number of problems. These problems are so acute that the very existence of the Russian

Federation becomes problematic. Well, let me try to explain why I say that.

Look, present-day Russia lives solely on money from oil and gas exports. But don't look

at the oil-and-gas revenue figure — it's a fake number. In reality, say, in that oil-and-gas

revenue figure, just so you understand. For example, the profit tax of an oil company. It simply isn't there.

It is recorded under a heading that is not “oil-and-gas revenues.” It's just such a sly manipulation of the mind

of people. So, 60-plus, or even 70 percent of all budget revenues and, by the way, of gross product

In the Russian Federation the oil and gas sectors generate the revenue. And everything else — those others — account for about 30–33 percent.

So what do we understand from this point of view? That the very basis of Russia's existence is now under

attack. It is shrinking and cannot be restored. There are forecasts by Russian academic scientists,

who assessed the prospects of Russia's oil and gas complex. They say,

that Russia will never again have the same revenues from oil and gas exports that it had before

the start, let's say, of the war. And this is not even due to sanctions. It's just that the world is changing, demand is changing,

the structure of energy consumption is changing. And, in general, the kind of possible revenue that Russia used to receive

is no longer possible. So this means that Russia is returning, how shall I put it, to the situation of the early 1960s.

years. And in the early sixties the Soviet Union began to fall apart. Its economy was in trouble. And this

is not some strange notion of mine. I'm simply reminding people of history that in 1965 an economic reform was begun

— the Kosygin–Liberman economic reform. Perhaps someone is familiar with this topic. So,

he was a member of the Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee, Comrade Kosygin, not because he was a fan of the liberal

views of Western economists, but because, as an excellent manager, he saw that the USSR's economy

was falling apart, dying, and had no money. Something had to be done, so there was an attempt to launch

some kind of economic reform to somehow revive the USSR's economy from its demise. But then

the riches of Tyumen were discovered, streams of oil and gas began flowing to Europe, huge sums of money poured into the budget and

All reforms were halted. If it weren't for this discovery of oil and gas fields and the supplies

to Europe, the Soviet Union would have collapsed in the 1960s. That is, by the early 1960s it was already clear

by 1965, or by 1963 respectively, the reform had been in preparation for two years, and that the Soviet Union would soon collapse. So,

now the picture is exactly the same. The main source of revenue is disappearing; restoring it to full volumes

is impossible. There are no other sources of financing for the Russian economy. Russia is unable

to produce anything today that would interest the world. I understand that this sounds extremely hurtful and very painful for

people raised in Russian culture, but Russia is of no use to anyone for anything except oil and gas. At most,

what it can still offer the world is palladium, vanadium, enriched uranium. Well, that's basically it,

Nothing else. The world doesn't need Russia as a manufacturer of cars, nor as a manufacturer

of motorcycles. It's even funny to say, right? I don't even know, furniture, clothing, footwear, household appliances,

computers, smartphones. Russia doesn't produce anything. It doesn't produce airplanes. It doesn't do anything

that the world would need. All it can make money from is the sale of oil and gas

resources. There is even less production of ferrous and non‑ferrous metals. It is already less than

before. Therefore Russia has exhausted, well, how should I put it, the economic basis of its existence.

And on top of that it started a war, came under sanctions, ruined what was left of its existence. So it's clear,

that Russia as a country is doomed. It is simply losing the basis for financing its existence. But—

This process can be long, very long. Why? Because we're talking about Russia, not about some

abstract country. And Russia is a country where people are extremely patient. They can be

driven to a state of utter poverty, to the complete destruction of their way of life. And they will tolerate that leadership.

In that sense I don't have any particularly bright prospects. Simply because I see,

for example, Cuba, which after 66 years under communist rule has been turned into ruins. And yet

I see the example of Iran, which is already living in extreme hardship. I see the example of North Korea, and the regimes

do not fall. Therefore I assume that you can't directly predict how long

Russia will exist — I can't. But I understand that if at some point a certain number of such people come together

critical factors, a resonance effect may arise. What might those factors be? These

could be a very poor harvest, that is, a shortage of food. It could be a shortage of fuel,

making it impossible to bring food to the stores. It could be disruptions in the payment of wages

and pensions, because the state will have no money. If all this is compounded by a very large

number of utility failures and cold winters, then there will be a feeling that life is impossible.

Something needs to be changed urgently. And at that moment a sort of centrifugal situation will begin, like it

was in the USSR, when local regional elites will want to break away from Moscow in order to survive on their own. Not

because they are some kind of patriots of their region, but because they are close to the people, the population may

And kill. And that's actually a pretty real idea. I was joking around a few days ago,

I said that a war against the local authorities would start, and already in one of Russia's regions — I won't say which — they hung a governor on a pole.

Well, a cardboard effigy, but with the governor's photograph.

That's already the kind of level of bitterness people reach when they do such a provocative thing. This

is, of course, not a living governor, but nevertheless it's already kind of a desire to hang the bosses because of

whom it's impossible to live. I mean, things like that. All this is very possible. There will be some death because

healthcare has collapsed or something else. And all this can stir up the population. And the population then

will try to lynch the mayor, the governor. And then they'll say that Moscow is to blame for everything — Moscow did this to us

have plundered us, taken all the money for the federal budget, are spending it on the war and on their palaces, and here we are in

the end we end up suffering. Let's secede from Russia and the process of Russia's disintegration will begin. That's something I can

imagine. Otherwise, say, if the state remains intact and such situations do not occur,

then Russia can for decades wallow in misery, sink into poverty, and continue to live exactly the same way.