Economic Struggles in Iran Amid US Pressure

Trump’s economic campaign against Iran is shaking the regime

in Tehran. This reality has intensified the struggle between two

centers of power in Iran. On one side, the hard-line faction of the Revolutionary

Guard, led by Revolutionary Guard commander Ahmad Vahidi

and Basij commander Hossein Taeb. Opposing them is the moderate faction

led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President

Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

We obtained quotes from unusual remarks by Ghalibaf in closed-door conversations,

as sources close to him describe them. According to them, Ghalibaf

describes the situation in Iran as desperate. He admits the U.S. blockade is working,

that there is not enough money for the middle class and that unrest in the country is

very high. The economic situation, he says, is already making it difficult for the regime to continue

governing the population.

Ghalibaf says that from conversations with the central bank governor, government ministers

and Revolutionary Guard personnel, he concluded that Iran cannot

survive like this for much longer. The currency is collapsing, inflation is high,

Revenues are low, and the war damage is almost beyond

repair.

According to him, both the government and the Revolutionary Guard misjudged

Trump.

They did not believe he could keep the pressure on

them for so

long, and now they understand that he has found Iran's

weak points.

The regime is even struggling to predict his next move.

Ghalibaf also says that Iran has effectively lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and that

it has almost no significant bargaining chips left.

According to sources close to Ghalibaf, when asked what the solution is, his answer

is direct: war. According to him, it would be better for the conflict to come

closer to the U.S. midterm elections, in the hope that Trump will lose

control of both houses of Congress, weaken, and ultimately

be forced to return to the negotiating table. According to the sources,

Ghalibaf himself does not believe he is a target of Israel or the United States.

According to him, he and others are among the only people still

trying to bring

reason to the Revolutionary Guard's line, and the Americans

know that,

But until then, the state needs funding, and this is where the conflict over

money comes into focus. For years, the Revolutionary Guards transferred budgets

to finance

the government's operations, which managed citizens' everyday lives in the country.

The government's dependence on the Guards is almost absolute.

According to our sources, due to the severe economic situation and the United

States blockade, the Revolutionary Guards are unable to transfer to the government the same

amounts they transferred in the past. The new reality has caused, as mentioned,

a dispute within the regime. Leaders of the moderate faction accuse the Revolutionary

Guards, telling them: You want to continue the war rather than reach

an agreement? We need to provide food, fuel, and salaries for more

than ninety million people. If this is your policy, bring

the money. According to our sources, the government is demanding the return of billions

of dollars held by businesspeople who are reported to have worked for

the regime.

One of them is Kameh Nabizadeh, whom we mentioned in the corruption case

we first exposed here. It involves about seven hundred million dollars

that the system demands he return. But

Navizadeh is just one example. We're talking about billions of dollars.

Ralibaf, who leads the criticism of the Revolutionary Guards, says:

We all

stole billions, but we can't keep the people in check much

longer. He points especially to Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Revolutionary

Guards, and says that the hardline he leads endangers

Iran.

In his talks, Ralibaf does not mention the Supreme Leader even once,

Khomeini. As long as the Revolutionary Guards' hardline does not

change, Ralibaf believes that Iran will simply continue

to deteriorate.