Analysis of Turkish Military Presence in Syria

Syrian. Following the unusual Israeli strike against a base where

Turkey tried to establish itself in northern Syria two days ago.

The United States is trying to lower the flames.

In Jerusalem, tones are being sharpened, while in Ankara they're trying

to appear as the responsible adult. Here.

And we

say

hello to Elizabeth Tsurkov, research fellow at the Forum for Regional Thinking from Ben-Gurion.

Hello, Elizabeth.

Hi, Roy.

So first of all, I want to understand from you what the Turkish entrenchment actually means

in Syria, as Israel accuses Ankara of, because on the face of it, in northern Syria

the Turks have already been entrenching themselves for quite a few years now.

Right. The Turks have been in Syria since 2016,

um, and significantly expanded their military presence

in 2020,

when in fact their military presence and direct intervention, um,

in the fighting prevented the fall of Idlib and the three

million residents who lived there, most of whom were actually displaced from other

areas, um, by the Assad regime, and that is actually what ultimately allowed

for the rebels to stay in these areas, and then

at the end of 2024, uh, to come and essentially take over Damascus.

So this isn't a new thing at all. Um, so—

So what is new?

The fall of Assad's regime. Yes, so what is new is

that relations have essentially changed. While in the past, uh,

Turkey was the protector of this region, but, uh, was

in rather strained relations, uh, with Tahrir al-Sham, which is

the former jihadist organization that now controls, uh, Syria, today

we have essentially moved to an alliance between two countries,

where both countries, uh, need each other in certain

respects, but there is also tension between them. Uh, for, uh,

Damascus it is very important, uh, to build its network

of alliances and expand it so it won't be dependent only

on one country. Because, essentially, this group that came to power

in Syria, they were in the past when founded in late twenty- twelve,

uh, a group, uh, in late 2011, a tiny group

of 20 people who reached a point where they control all of Syria because of

a lust for power, a willingness to use

force to gain more power, and then once in power, they don't want

to be

anyone's puppet, which is why they immediately turned to Saudi Arabia.

The first visit was to Saudi Arabia, the first interview was to Saudi TV,

and also out of

the understanding, of course, that the money is there, and Syria is completely devastated.

What, what do the Turks actually want from Syria, Elizabeth?

Well, the Turks certainly want, uh, to maintain a kind of

si-situation of,

uh, a certain dominance. They are trying hard to push, uh, also

for beneficial economic deals for the Turkish economy,

and in some things they succeed, and in many cases, they don't.

Meaning, there is Turkish frustration. I've heard this from many

Syrian government officials, that there is a clear Turkish frustration

with the fact that there is, uh, a very clear effort

by the Syrians to expand their alliances and not be dependent solely

on Turkey, so it wouldn't be— so it's not a situation of "we came to power,

But then we're actually not

in power, because Turkey forces us to do this and that.

So you're actually saying something very important here, because in Israel

they say Ahmad al-Sharaa, al-Julani, is a protégé

of Turkish President Erdogan, and on the face of it, that doesn't seem to be the case.

Ahmad al-Sharaa made tremendous efforts to come to power.

Uh, he lived in- in caves, he, uh,

fought, he, uh,

attacked many former allies. All of this to come to power, not

to then become someone's puppet, right? And so relations with Turkey are

tense. For instance, there are repeated Turkish attempts

to secure

meetings with senior government officials, and there are constant delays.

The Turkish ambassador in Damascus is very, very frustrated by this,

uh, and a host of deals they wanted to close ended up,

going to the Saudis,

for instance, uh, a, a concrete plant, and concrete is very, very

important for Syria's reconstruction. The- the deal went to the Saudis.

So Israel isn't reading the map correctly? Is that what you're telling us?

Uh, the Turks certainly play a key role,

uh, in, uh, training the Syrian army, um, but

they previously played an even bigger role among the Syrian rebels.

They had proxy militias they sent to fight in Libya

and in Niger and Azerbaijan. They had an intell-- an intelligence organization that operated

inside Syria, which has basically been disbanded since Assad's fall.

So they actually had a very, very significant influence inside, inside Syria,

and now this influence has changed, and now there is basically an attempt to cooperate with a state,

and this state, the Syrian state, is also trying to build other alliances.

So there is definitely an influence, uh, Turkish influence.

There is, say, intelligence cooperation. The Turks, uh, provide, uh,

for example, uh, drones that hover and collect

intelligence, because the Syrian government lacks these capabilities.

So there is definitely cooperation, uh, but it is not a situation of

a puppet, uh, that takes orders from Ankara and carries them out.

Very interesting. Elizabeth Zucker, thank you very much for these illuminating

and important remarks.

Thank you very much.