Transcript · English → Korean
English → Korean transcript
내일당장휴전이
이루어진다고해도지금이순간,
앞으로다섯분안에세계는
이미달라진다고보시는거죠.
원유상품시장에서
뭐가바뀌었냐고요?
완전히달라졌습니다.
음,첫째로,전세계공급망을
붕괴시켰습니다.
이건단지석유공급만의
문제가아니라,가스,비료,
금속,석유화학제품까지그
목록은끝도없이이어집니다.
그리고전세계
곳곳의나라들에서
공급망이붕괴됐고,
선박들은죄다엉뚱한
곳에가있고,음,보험도전부
취소됐습니다.사우디아라비아
같은곳에서가동을멈춘
유전들의압력을
사우디아라비아에서혹은
이라크에서,음,
심지어UAE에서도빼버렸습니다.
정말,그목록은
끝도없이이어집니다.
이피해를되돌리는데에는
수개월이걸릴겁니다.
하지만,하지만저는,
저는이문제를지금당장의일로
돌려서이야기하고싶습니다.
이원유상승세를막을수있는어떤
정책대응도없습니다.
전혀없어요.그리고맞아요,
당신이말한4억배럴헤드라인이
나온거죠.
중요한건유량이에요.최대지속
가능유량이하루200
만배럴이라는거알잖아요.
그러니까4억배럴이면,
그걸빼내는
데200일이걸립니다.
음,그리고그걸,말하자면,
혼란상황의
맥락에넣어보면,
결론만말하자면,지금하루약
1,800만배럴정도가끊긴
셈이거든요.그러면그걸
상쇄하는데있어서는정말
미미한수준인거죠.
그래서다시말하지만,저는
여기엔선택지가별로없다고
봅니다.
End of transcript · 81 words · machine translated
Original transcript (English)
You believe that even if there's a ceasefire tomorrow, right now, You believe that even if there's a ceasefire tomorrow, right now, the next five minutes, the world's changed. the next five minutes, the world's changed. The commodities of crude, what's changed? Absolutely. Um,
The commodities of crude, what's changed? Absolutely. Um, for one, you've disrupted global supply chains. for one, you've disrupted global supply chains. This is not just a disruption of oil, This is not just a disruption of oil,
it's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals, the list goes on and on. And then you've disrupted supply chains And then you've disrupted supply chains
in countries all over the world, the ships are in the wrong places, um, in countries all over the world, the ships are in the wrong places, um, the insurances have been canceled. the insurances have been canceled. You've taken the pressure out of the fields that you've shut in in places like
Saudi Arabia or Iraq or, um, even in the UAE. I can just, the list goes on and on. the list goes on and on.
The damage is going to take months to unwind. The damage is going to take months to unwind. But, but I, I want to bring it to the immediate. I want to bring it to the immediate.
There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude. None. And yes, you've hit this 400 million barrel headline. Flow rate is what matters. Flow rate is what matters.
You know the maximum sustainable flow rate is 2 million barrels per day. So 400, that will take them 200 days to get that out. 200 days to get that out.
Um, and you put that in the context of a disruption of, you know, let's net it out of this, let's net it out of this, you know, it's got to be somewhere around 18 million barrels per day right now. You're just a miniscule in terms
You're just a miniscule in terms of offsetting it. So again, I, there's not many options here. there's not many options here.
