Analysis of US-Iran Conflict Dynamics

If you had told me a year ago that the US would attack Iran

the US would attack Iran with Israel,

with Israel, gain full air superiority, and the regional countries would not join

and the regional countries would not

that war more aggressively, more enthusiastically, I think a lot

more enthusiastically,

of experts a year ago would have been very surprised that

of experts a year ago would have been very surprised that

We are more likely to get regional countries on board with a kind of modest

with a kind of modest vision

vision of regional

as a way of moving towards that kind of larger cooperation

larger cooperation than we are to ask regional states to accept a new fundamental

to accept a new fundamental security reality.

It's fundamental to

is that any form of interdependence can be both

for a positive outcome or the basis of adding pressure or coercion.

or the basis of adding pressure or coercion.

And Iran just has to be comfortable with that, strategically.

The strait has not been closed to pressure Arab countries at this moment.

It has been closed as part of the Iran- US war.

Just as the Bab- el- Mandeb Strait was not closed to pressure Arab countries,

but was closed as an effort to lift the blockade on Yemen.

Now, between Iran and the US,

Which one wants this war to reach a state of' no war,

The Iranian side or the American side?

Meaning, the Iranian side says,'

I have kept my reserves,'

' I have preserved my sovereignty and my territorial integrity,' '

if you press the stop button, I am satisfied.'

The American side, well, is not satisfied.

You are forced to put

pressure on the opposing side because you know they are sensitive to interest rates,

because you know they are sensitive to inflation,

Because you know he faces a serious question in the midterms, and in the Senate,

things are getting worse for him And very clearly,

در جاهای دیگه مرتبطه با قیمت بنزینه و چیزهایی شبیه به این.

To believe that that's going to make a difference is to believe that at some point

is to believe that at some point

the marginal pressure gets so great that the political decision in Washington has

that the political decision in Washington has to change where this president,

you know, decides that the pain is intolerable and the war has to end.

Maybe it's the

but that's a big gamble.

Most of the actions Iran can take, even striking major facilities like Ras Laffan,

even striking major facilities like Ras Laffan,

the LNG plant in Qatar, this is a question of marginal pressure.

this is a question of marginal pressure.

Iran is not experiencing marginal costs.

Iran cannot come up with enough military capabilities or a military

strategy that ends up controlling decisions in Washington.

controlling decisions in Washington.

But it can use a combination of its military response to US aggression and

its diplomatic outreach, including through regional countries...

its diplomatic outreach, including through regional countries...

Do you think the Qataris didn't want to give us our money during Biden's time?

They wanted to give it.

The Prime Minister of Qatar directly made one of the

officials of the Central Bank of Qatar responsible for following up on this matter,

and that's where they told Mr. Farzin that even if they don't pay,

the Emir himself will provide the credit. What do you think happened?

At the direct behest of the Americans, that official at the

At the direct behest of the Americans, that official at the

Central Bank of Qatar was fired.

We shouldn't exaggerate the other side's ability to influence.

Actually, regarding Qatar,

and the risk of weakening it faces regarding the UAE and Saudi Arabia,

more than anyone else, meaning the Saudis might see some benefit in this matter.

Up until the Bab- el- Mandeb incident.

The Emiratis might think differently about their security relations with Israel.

The Qataris get hit by both us and the Israelis.

At least one site was hit twice,

Look, there are limits to their power.

Look, there are limits to their power.

Right now, the Americans are blocking any regional deal.

Until they wake up and realize that there is no going back to before the war and

و متوجه بشن که به قبل از جنگ و به قبل از ۹ اسفند نمیشه برگشت،

before February 28th, we still have some way to go.