Chinese → English transcript

How can Iran use its existing equipment to shoot down F-35s

How do we solve this problem

We need to break a big problem into smaller ones

Then solve it using the process of elimination

How do you shoot down a fifth-generation stealth fighter

You cannot figure it out

But once you break it down

For example, how do you shoot down a plane

Then you will definitely be able to

And you can even infer other things from what you learned

Once you learn how to shoot down an F-35

Then is it not the same idea to shoot down a B-2

You get it, right

Let us begin

How do you shoot down a plane

There are basically two ways

First, air to air

Send a plane up and use its onboard weapons to attack

Second, surface to air

Attack from the ground with air defense weapons

Which one do we choose

Right

Given the current situation

The first way is not very realistic

Under two weeks of sustained high-intensity airstrikes

Military aircraft parked in the open

Have basically all been reduced back to parts

Even if some can be preserved in caves and shelters

The airfields are being watched very closely

Even if they can get airborne

The technological gap is just too big

After all, Iran’s only active heavy air-superiority fighter

Is still the F-14 acquired in the Pahlavi era

Take any one of them

The airframe is at least forty-eight years old

And there is no way to maintain it with factory-standard care

So you really cannot count on them

So it has to be surface to air

And again there are two options

One is to use anti-aircraft guns and other tube weapons

The other is to use missiles

How do we choose

At present there is no evidence

That Iran is equipped with modern self-propelled AA guns

With integrated fire-control radar and electro-optical systems

And F-35s would not dare come down to low altitude anyway

So we still choose missiles

But what kind of air defense system do we need to use missiles

One is long-range

The other is short-range

How do we choose

Long-range air defense systems

Such as the S-300 imported from big Russia

And the domestically developed Bavar-373

Are all very large in size

The missile launch units

Fire-control radar

And control cabins are all separate

You need multiple vehicles to form a complete system

It takes a long time to deploy

And they are very conspicuous targets

When they move it is a whole huge convoy

Under conditions of inferiority in the air

Their survivability is very limited

After several previous rounds of conflict

Iran also suffered a lot of losses

And began moving toward miniaturization

And distributed systems

Just a few months before this round of conflict

The Majid point-defense air defense system

Entered mass service

It uses a light off-road vehicle chassis

The whole system is very simple

Two people can just drive it around

And complete launch, reloading, and other related operations

Its maximum effective range is eight kilometers

It is not equipped with radar

Instead it uses an electro-optical system

To track and lock onto aerial targets

Some friends have often said before

Then stealth fighters are not stealthy

I can see them with my own eyes

That is because their stealth is aimed at radar

But as long as an electro-optical system can see it, it can hit it

And electro-optical searching

Will not trigger the enemy aircraft’s RWR warning system

Very suitable for guerrilla warfare

And it performs quite well in actual combat

In the past two years

The Husei armed group used captured air-to-air missiles

And civilian electro-optical gear bought online

To brute-force some really improvised

Homemade air defense systems

They found they could hit F-15s

And kick Apaches out of the sky just fine

In the current conflict

American Reaper drones

And Israel’s Hermes and Skylark drones

Have had at least twenty shot down, conservatively

The vast majority of those kills were by Majid

Under the right conditions

Shooting down a slow F-35 “friendly” jet like that

Is not anything strange

But here’s the problem

Its range is too short

Early warning time is insufficient

You need equipment with a longer detection range

To find the F-35

As for the legendary “Ish” radar

Supposedly acquiring something like the YLC-8B

Or this 27A-type anti-stealth early warning radar

That is impossible

There is simply no such thing

And the domestically developed Alborz-I and Maragis

And other long-range radars

Have limited anti-stealth capability

And there are few of them

They are probably gone as well

So what to do

Using electro-optical detection

Might be the best option

Go find some cheap, mature civilian equipment

And hand it down to the front line

For example, electro-optical sensors with infrared mode

In civilian security, industrial, maritime fields worldwide

They are already very common

Very easy to find

Very easy to get

Of course

If you can find military-grade ones

Even better

Then each unit, around its positions

Deploys this equipment

For aerial detection

Overlapping each other

To form a distributed air defense network

Some will say, wait a minute

Lao Hu, you said before

You cannot see clearly with only this

It is hard to identify targets

No problem

At this point we simply do not identify them

You may not see the outline clearly

But seeing the heat source and engine plume is enough

Anyway, your own aircraft

Have basically stopped flying altogether

As long as you see an aircraft signal

That is a hostile target

After grasping the enemy situation like this

You hop in a pickup truck

Drive to a suitable spot

Wait for it to enter range

Then hit it

Of course, this approach

Still requires detailed planning and command

You also need enough patience

And a certain amount of luck

But it is worth a try

Since they have come all this way

Do not let them go back