Iraq's Strategy to Control Armed Groups

As the deadline for placing weapons under state control approaches

at the end of next September, the Iraqi government

appears to be on the threshold of a new security phase targeting the country's most

sensitive issues. Rather than

resorting to direct force, Baghdad is moving toward

a strategy of tightening the noose around the main

strongholds of armed factions linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard

in a gradual process aimed at curbing

their influence and imposing state authority without slipping into

an open confrontation. Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported

that Iraqi sources said the government plan

is based on deploying army units, Counter-Terrorism Service

forces, and elite units around the sites and centers

of operations belonging to armed factions, and imposing

tight controls on the movement of transport and supplies. Security

assessments suggest that this plan could push the factions toward

one of two options: either abandoning some of their positions

and handing them over to the state, or committing security violations that allow

the state to expand the scope of its measures against them.

The newspaper says that Iraqi forces have already begun

taking initial steps to implement the plan by deploying

units along several roads over the past few days,

and that some of them have successfully seized shipments of

drones. The information also indicates that

the plan focuses primarily on the areas of

Jurf al-Sakhar and Jurf al-Nadaf, south of Baghdad, which are

among the main strongholds of Iran-aligned armed factions.

The plan is not limited to developing the factions’ positions

alone, but extends to a broader project to

reorganize the Popular Mobilization Forces’ deployment by withdrawing forces from

the cities and redeploying them according to

military arrangements away from the influence of faction leaders.

Political sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that the essence of the plan is not

a military confrontation, but rather creating a new reality on the ground

that opens the door to serious negotiations with the factions regarding

their future and the fate of their members, with the aim of

dismantling one of the most

complicated issues in Iraq.