US Iran Relations and Regional Conflicts

Welcome, dear viewers, to “Hour of Debate,” where we leave it

to our guests to present before you the most diverse views in a dialogue

whose course they themselves chart. The winds of field

and diplomatic tensions between the United States and Iran

are blowing against the ships’ wishes in the Strait of Hormuz. Beyond

the contest over routes, they also find themselves compelled to navigate

the depths of conflicting accounts of the circumstances of

security incidents and the pitfalls of the opposing calculations of both sides in

the confrontation, amid mines, projectiles,

and reroutings. Washington and Tehran’s rhetoric swings

between brandishing the stick of war and keeping the carrot of

settlement on offer. With no clear horizon for a scene haunted

by pressing electoral and economic calculations, and as

President Trump speaks of a near end to the war against Iran

and a coming drop in energy prices, Yemen is drawing

growing attention, imposed by fighting that does not stop

between the Ansar Allah Houthi group and its rivals inside

the country and along its borders. An armed conflict whose

echoes are heard in Egypt, which has expressed its readiness to undertake

through any intervention it is asked to make

to undertake. Would that reshape the conflict and its scope?

How are we to understand the relationship between this development and Iran's proposal

to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah?

From what position can Tehran do so? And with what

substance? Questions whose answers are contested by indicators

that appear, on the surface, scattered across time and space, yet

at their core, point to a unifying thread that leads

the ends of the confrontation back to its center. These issues

And others, we will discuss them with our guests in the studio.

With us is Dr. Liqaa Makki, senior researcher at the

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies. Dr. Ibrahim Fraihat, professor of

international conflicts at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Tim Constantine, deputy editor-in-chief at the Washington

Times. Dr. Hassan Ahmadian, professor of Middle

Eastern studies at the University of Tehran. Salem Al-Yami, consultant

formerly at the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Dr. Mahjoub Zouari, academic and expert in Eastern policies

Middle East. Dr. Mohammed Al-Oraimi, a writer and researcher in

political and strategic affairs. And Dr. Saleh

Al-Mutairi, head of Al-Madar Center for Political Studies.

Mohammed Al-Oraimi.

Is this escalation by Iran, whether politically

or militarily, understandable to us as researchers and also

as observers of political affairs in the region?

Iran is betting on time, and Iran is fully aware

that there are elections in two weeks in the

United States, and it must pressure Trump

With the greatest and strongest force it can muster,

it is now pressing, working against time,

betting on Trump's defeat in the election.

This scenario Iran is working on is a scenario

that was prepared in advance, not something new, and thus

the United States is exposed to Iran, and Iran is aware

of the key aspects of political activity in the United States

of America. It is betting on Trump's defeat in the coming days,

trying to pressure him so that he raises

A gallon of diesel has reached six dollars, and therefore

Tehran knows where the pressure points are

to hurt Trump. In recent days, Trump

in the last four or five days, we have seen a kind of restraint in him,

meaning that Trump these days is not Trump as he was

before. He is trying to weigh every word

that comes out of his mouth. He is also trying to court

voters. He knows there are domestic pressures

on him from American voters. He knows that

the balance of power is not in his or the

Republican Party's favor, and therefore all these matters

are political and strategic motives pressuring the American

president and will continue to pressure him. I believe, in fact I am certain,

that in the coming days Iran will raise

the stakes of its maneuvering, whether through pressure,

targeting ships, or also through

escalating tensions in the region, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or

in the strait.

But Mr. Salem Al-Yami said a little while ago that it does not gain anything from

that.

And it has nothing to lose. As for

for the Iranian people, and perhaps Dr. Hassan

can speak on this matter. This people was besieged

for more than seven. It was under sanctions, not a blockade this time.

The situation is different.

Therefore, it can adapt to everything

that is happening on the ground.

Therefore, from my point of view, Iran,

the Iranian people, and even the Iranian regime have nothing

to lose. It is only trying

to pressure the American president as much as possible now.

What results will occur on the ground over the next

14 days? This is what the Iranian regime is betting on.

I may not agree with the argument

that the United States will

withdraw from the region. On the contrary, the United

States will make every effort

to remain in this region because it realizes that whenever it

withdraws, and this is what President Trump has hinted at

more than once, I believe China is

present, and the war now taking place in the region.

I mean, China is not really in the picture or a major part of the scene,

but no one can deny that China

supports certain countries and certain things in the region.

This means that in the war currently underway, China,

Russia, and North Korea are parties to this

war. Therefore, escalation will undoubtedly

continue, and open wars, open war,

I believe, will come to pass in the region

after the U.S. elections. There is a new Middle East.

We must not forget the Israeli dream in the region.

There is a new Middle East being built for this

region, and this new Middle East that which

Benjamin Netanyahu dreams of will not be achieved as long as

these countries are stable. Creative chaos is what

will bring about this Middle East. Iraq is now ablaze.

Syria's situation is, I mean, شبه stable.

Yemen is ablaze, Sudan, all these

countries, including Lebanon. The stable countries and the

The countries attractive for investment and otherwise are the Gulf states.

The Gulf states must enter. The Gulf states, including the Kingdom

of Saudi Arabia, tried very hard not to enter

this war, but unfortunately, they have now been drawn in

and begun the conflict with Yemen.

Over the past 800 years, no one has entered

Yemen,

whether a state or an army, and emerged

victorious, from the Romans

to

the British, who all withdrew, and also Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Therefore, this region is meant to enter

interconnected crises, and I believe that this open crisis

and this war, and these open wars, will

befall this region in the coming days.

Speaking of Yemen, Doctor, today there is an Egyptian step

represented by the invitation of

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to Parliament for an emergency

session tomorrow to authorize defending

the Gulf states should Egypt be asked to do so.

What do you make of this step?

That is understandable, if you allow me, I would just like to comment on this point.

Egyptian national security, no one

can separate it from the region's security.

The Suez Canal is linked to the Red Sea.

The Red Sea is linked to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is linked to the Strait of Hormuz, and thus all

these waterways are connected to one another. The

military relationship between Egypt and Saudi Arabia is not

new. There was a military partnership

in 1973.

There was also a partnership during the war to liberate

Kuwait. Thus, this pattern and this military and political

تعامل between Egypt and Saudi Arabia

is not new. Therefore, there is an awareness on the part of

President el-Sisi that there is a danger

coming to Egypt because the Red Sea has

shared interests. Whenever the Red Sea is stable,

the Suez Canal can operate, and these are all

waterways and maritime passages connected to one

another.