Analysis of Recent Political Movements

CJP's top leadership has just come out after spending about eight days in jail

And some people may be surprised. CJP certainly will be surprised that

In these eight days,

ordinary people, especially students, did not do anything significant in their support.

No online social media movement took off, nor were there any street protests. Nothing.

And they may find it surprising because just a few weeks ago, CJP

led a hugely successful movement

against Dharmendra Pradhan, where they really brought the government to its knees.

The government became so clueless that it was ready to agree to their every demand. It was ready

to appease them in every way. Things got to the point where JP Nadda was forcibly

shaking hands with them. They were threatening on social media that they would protest again, and the government immediately

went to the Supreme Court, and the cases it filed

was taking them back. So what has suddenly happened that these people are no longer

relevant?

To understand this, you need to understand two concepts. One is

popular culture, which is a social phenomenon, and the other is the bandwagon

effect, which is a psychological phenomenon. So I'll try to explain both of these

things with a small example. Shahdol district in Madhya Pradesh. Here,

there is an assembly constituency called Sohagpur.

Ever since Sohagpur became an assembly seat, only the BJP and

Congress have always won here. Except for that one time in the year

2000. There was a by-election here, in which Shabnam Mausi,

an independent candidate who was transgender, contested.

So Shabnam Mausi began campaigning door to door and told the people

You've given women a chance and seen, you've given men a chance and seen.

Nothing has changed. Give us a chance too, who knows, we might change the situation.

We might change the situation.

People really liked what she said. It was a bit humorous, and ordinary people, you know,

at the Assembly level, are at least fed up with all the politicians. They see no hope

in the BJP, nor do they see any hope in Congress. So

they said,

"Man, she's right. Why not give her our vote?"

Slowly, these discussions began in offices,

at tea stalls, by the roadside,

and inside homes, and people

started talking. "We'll vote for her, we'll vote for Shabnam Mausi."

Slowly, it became a mass movement, and an independent candidate, Shabnam

Mausi won the election by quite a large margin, I think around 17,000 votes.

And India’s first transgender person,

she became an MLA.

So after that, Shabnam Mausi did her work well. There were no major problems

with her. So technically, Shabnam Mausi should have won the next election, which was three

years later, in 2003. But people had nothing to do with Shabnam

Mausi’s work. They were just enjoying the fact that they would

teach the politicians a lesson. And they liked this slogan: men have been given a chance,

women have been given a chance, now give us one too. It became a mass movement

then.

That’s why they made her win. In 2003, that euphoria had ended. This time,

when the elections were held, Shabnam Mausi was in 10th place. Just imagine, she won the election,

did a decent job, but despite that, she no longer had any relevance

because

Shabnam Mausi's victory was a pop culture moment.

It is said that in that particular area, this was what was trending at the time.

So everyone came forward one after another in her support. And when

a movement starts getting support from some people, more people join it

continuously.

And more people keep joining it. This is

called the bandwagon effect. Now, neither of these

things can be created repeatedly. This happens only once. It was created once because of Shabnam Mausi,

and afterward, people lost interest. Then in 2003,

when elections were held, Shabnam Mausi was nowhere to be seen. Besides this, there are

many such examples around the world. For example, one of Dhanush's songs became very famous, “Why This Kolaveri.”

All over India, people were listening to that song and making their own versions of it.

They are. People have gone crazy. Now no one listens to that song. If that song really was amazing

people would still be listening to it today. But it was a pop culture moment at that time.

It was

trending. People started listening to it, so more people started making it, and it became famous.

Similarly, there is a South Korean singer. His song was "Gangnam Style."

That too was a mass moment like this. Now no one listens to it.

There is a South

actress whose

video of winking went very viral. Now no one knows her. I mean, people in the South

local industry might know her, but she is no longer discussed across India.

So there are many such moments where someone went viral for one particular

incident,

everyone discussed it, and that euphoria faded away, and the matter ended.

It

ended.

So something similar happened with CJP. CJP

The public is already troubled anyway. The youth is already anti-establishment,

rebellious, and already fed up with society,

idealistic.

In the meantime, CGI sir used the word “cockroach.” Deep K. did a lot of

thinking, I must admit. He immediately created a handle called Cockroach Janta Party.

He did.

And people started following it.

More people joined. Due to the bandwagon effect, more people followed, and discussions began.

Then some more people realized, man, this has amazing potential,

so they hijacked this handle and turned it into a mass movement.

At the same time, the paper leak issue was also going on, so they raised a very good

topic there.

And the movement was going well. At first, there wasn’t that much support, but,

But this was artificially made into a pop culture moment. How?

Sonam Wangchuk was on a hunger strike, and when his condition began to deteriorate, I think on day 16,

around 18, when it became difficult for him to walk, when videos were coming out showing he had become very weak,

then, along with those videos, a very large social media movement began,

in which celebrities and influencers and such people

posted a

together

started posting, started tweeting that he would die after that

Will you speak after that?

And seeing Wangchuk like this

weak was a little difficult for young people. Especially

science, maths, the STEM stream, as it is called,

students who usually

do not protest, mind their own business,

those people started protesting.

Because Wangchuk has the image of a scientist and innovator,

and he is fighting against a genuine issue.

So people began showing support, taking to the streets, and creating content.

People watched it and joined, and a pop culture moment was

created.

Everyone wanted to be part of that movement. More and more people joined.

The government didn’t understand because they hadn’t anticipated it, and suddenly things

got bigger.

They had to back down, which they should have done much earlier. Dharmendra Pradhan

should have resigned much earlier. But anyway,

it happened.

Now, the CJP leadership felt that this happened because of us, because of our popularity.

We are the new leaders now. We will decide the country’s future.

But that wasn’t the case.

Whatever success there was, it was a pop culture moment.

It didn’t happen because of any one leader or any one face. But CJP

The leadership most likely didn't see it that way, because if you look at their behavior

you'll realize it too. Because

you achieved what you wanted. Now

after that, they became somewhat arrogant. If you look at their later behavior, there was taunting,

jeering, making fun, issuing threats again that

they were coming to demand the education minister's resignation. "Do you know who we are?" And so on.

After that, there was another incident when a matter was before the Supreme Court, that the court cases

that

had been filed against the rioters would not be withdrawn. So these people once again threatened

to protest.

And the government immediately went to the Supreme Court and said, "No, no, withdraw

the cases." So that was their second victory. And inside,

there

their overconfidence kept growing, that now we can do whatever we want, we'll protest and

The public will start pouring in, and we'll do whatever we want. So, this goodwill

that they had generated because of that one genuine reason

and on top of that, they became overconfident that, man, whatever happened was because of us.

Now we, the country, we, we will decide what happens here.

So after that, they channeled this goodwill toward a political topic,

vote theft, the death of democracy, which for the general public,

wasn't important. The general public didn't care anyway. It was

a moment, and they got swept up in it. Now they've all gone back to their lives. So these people

came out

with their cadre and their left-wing support group. They thought

the sit-in would start, the movement would start, uh, they'd be arrested, the police

would use batons, the videos would go viral again, celebrities would share them again, then the general public

This and that will come together, and everything will happen again. But nothing happened like that. The police quietly

started making them sit peacefully and detained them, then took them to court.

They signed a bail bond there, saying they would no longer hold

protests and such. But

when they went to protest again, the police picked them up and detained them. They must have thought

something would happen, that the public would come out, but the public's job is done, man. The public has forgotten. They

have moved on. In the public's eyes, you people were not heroes

or leaders and such. It was a pop culture moment. It is over. And why is it necessary to call this

out? Because this is how color revolutions happen.

You should read

about color revolutions and see that wherever you want to bring about regime change,

you

raise genuine issues like unemployment, education, crime.

That is why people are troubled by all these issues. So you lead a mass movement.

People automatically keep joining you, joining you, joining you. You build

a support base, and then you use it politically

for regime change, you divert all their anger

against the incumbent.

And the government has to flee. So this is what

they tried to do here as well. A genuine issue was raised, the NEET issue.

Again, I’m saying it once more, it was a very right thing. You people did well.

Fine, whatever it was. But the goodwill you generated, you tried to

divert and use purely for the political issue of vote theft,

the death of democracy. So now CJP cannot recreate that moment

because that moment did not happen because of them. Again, as I said, it was a pop culture

It was a moment, like with the Nirbhaya case. The Nirbhaya case wasn't India's first rape.

There was a rape incident, and it was covered everywhere in the media, so extensively that

people kept joining in and took to the streets. Coverage of that street protest

in the media brought even more people out.

It became a mass movement. But did rapes stop after that?

Rapes keep happening, but people don't take to the streets because no one else is out there.

If, God forbid, another major rape incident takes place and people take to the streets,

the media will show them, and more will come out. That's how mass movements form, by following others.

It's the bandwagon effect, and it becomes a pop culture moment. Things happen because of it.

So once again, Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation was a pop culture moment.

It wasn't because of CJP. That was

It’s not as if CJP’s leaders became great leaders. After that, because of them,

this happened. Otherwise, we’d have stayed in jail for eight days, man. No one,

no one was on social media. No one was on the ground. I mean, a thousand or two thousand ordinary

guys should have come, right, standing outside the jail, protesting, saying, “Release

them. Release them.” No one.