Analysis of Middle East Political Dynamics

Note that Netanyahu says we’re

going to act without turning to the United States.

They say there was a man who used to mock people, telling them

free food was being handed out there. When he saw people crowding,

he ran after them, afraid he would miss the food, meaning he believed his own lie.

Israel is nothing without the United States. It cannot

act preemptively without U.S. permission. The enormous change

in the region now is not Israeli preemption, but Iran’s shift

toward preemptive defense, which

it proved or demonstrated in southern Jordan and against

the American— Israeli-A-American warships in

the Arabian Sea. That is why I say the change is not Israeli.

Israel is now afraid of the future of the conflict,

and if it loses, if Trump loses Congress

and is restrained and cannot launch an attack with it,

then it will simply remain, and a period will begin,

a period in which Israel... It is the stage of finishing it off.

First of all, if you allow me, Dr. Hassan, just a comment that

sanctions were lifted in many cases. In 2004, Libya.

When Gaddafi gave up his nuclear program at the time,

Syria in 2026, and Iran as well in the nuclear agreement,

Vietnam after the war, Iraq in 2003. So don't say they weren't

lifted. Let me just finish, then comment as much as you like.

Let me clarify the picture for you.

Okay, everyone after...

You have to give up and strip yourself

of independence to have sanctions lifted.

In the end, when you submit to international law.

When you submit to the United States, to the United States.

In the case of...

Sanctions were only lifted in the event of giving up

independence. There is no example of a country

holding on to its independence and having sanctions lifted.

The second point is inspections, and Iran is a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Indeed, Iran is a member, but there is no

protocol.

Basically, there is no precedent for attacking, uh,

nuclear infrastructure in a country where there is no, where there is no

protocol for dealing with it. When Iran began discussions

with the, uh, International Atomic Energy Agency after the first attack,

The discussion was about which protocol we would base your work in Iran on

It reached no conclusion until we got to a second war,

so.

Syria did not relinquish its independence when it was raised two

days ago. Excuse me, but two days ago means Iran

relinquished its independence in 2016 when the sanctions were lifted.

If you acknowledge that, I will acknowledge Syria's relinquishing of its independence.

Only two days ago, but why was it not rebuilt in 2015? Because

Iran did not relinquish its independence. Two days ago, communication

between Netanyahu and President al-Sharaa was facilitated. There is nothing to it.

This communication was from three months ago and concerned a specific issue regarding

the electoral process, and the communication does not mean anything.

Yes, facilitating it.

Also, in my view,

the time for mediation is over, whether it is Omani,

Qatari, or Pakistani mediation. From my point

of view, I think that this visit is a

specific visit to advise the regime in Iran

that the red lines are beginning to run out,

and I recall history in 2003, in March 2003

President Putin himself sent Primakov to warn President

Saddam.

Primakov.

that things had begun to get out of hand and were coming to an end.

I agree that this visit may carry warnings,

but the situation is different from 2003.

The United States, the United States of 2003, nor is Iran

like Iraq, which was stripped of its 50-kilometer missiles as well

before it was finally finished off. Therefore, I see it within

the framework of Russia's balancing policy.

When they reached an agreement with the United States, controversy arose

in Iran. What is the—what is this agreement, given that it is a

strategic partner of Iran,

and his visit to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries also

raised questions in Tehran. My assessment is that this visit

balances those narratives, nothing more than

that, because Russia, like China, distances itself from

being a guarantor of something it cannot guarantee.

Meaning, it proposes that it can receive uranium, but it does not guarantee

U.S. conduct, and this will complicate its relationship with

Iran in the future. It also increased China's confidence

and Russia's confidence in Iran after the last war, and they do not see that

there is any possibility of Iran falling in a new war,

Therefore, I see it as a diplomatic balancing visit

and nothing more. Mediation is indeed still ongoing, but

its scope of influence has diminished and receded, and the Iranians

view it that— I mean, in this way.

Therefore, we are headed for an escalation, perhaps the most likely scenario,

although mediators still hope

to halt this escalation, uh, but in any

case, Iranian-Russian relations, contrary to the impression that

Russia might sell out Iran, you have to possess something

to sell.

No, uh, Iran does not need Russian weapons. Most of what

it got from Russia was S-300 air defense systems, S- 300.

They came at a time when

strategically, they had no impact. Iran had better systems.

Second, there are economic relations. Russia,

which is heavily sanctioned, is more in need of what

is made inside Iran than Iran needs Russia at this stage,

Therefore, Russia has nothing to sell in this relationship, so

I see it as nothing more than a diplomatic balancing act.

What are they saying

about us?