Analysis of Yemen's Political Landscape

And joining me now from London is Andreas Krieg, associate professor at the School of Security Studies at King's College London. He's also CEO of the political risk firm MENA Analytica. Andreas, what's your read now of where we currently stand? Do you think the government forces

are regrouping to make an assault on Houthi positions? I think we have been there before. We've been under an umbrella of narratives being pushed, particularly by the Emiratis, but also partially by the

Saudis of, that suggest that there is a very strong, a united, cohesive front line against the Houthis being built. Uh, when in reality, I think the narrative has really been undermined very,

very strategically over the last, uh, 48 hours or so. What we're seeing now is a h- picture of a highly fragmented anti-Houthi front, uh, where different patrons have bought their loyalties through money, uh, where people, uh, and also militias have been assembled, uh, to

basically compete over domestic constituencies in the south of Yemen without actually ever focusing on, uh, the Houthis in the north. And I think in particularly, I would say that what Abu Dhabi has done over the last

couple of, uh, years, or the last 10 years, by building its own networks in the south at the expense of Saudi Arabia, has led to a fragmented sort of front that has now led to polarization. And a, and, and clearly has shown as

well that they don't have a unity of effort or a unity of force. They lack a clear vision, and they're up against the Houthi front on the other side, which is extremely swift, very cohesive, which has a very clear objective, and unfortunately has been able to exploit

the weakness and vulnerability of the southern forces. And also, the other issue that I think we need to highlight here is that a front on a more central parts of Yemen are probably not necessarily

in the interest of the international community. I think what the world is looking at at the moment is what has been the full collapse on the west coast, which has been a strategic, very, very strategic point and asset, uh, particularly around Tariq Saleh. And the fact that his forces have lost there is something that they can't

compensate by any so- any gain actually in central Yemen. So do you think that the Houthis have actually been underestimated, given the fact that the government forces in the end, they just basically packed up and, and left, and handed over this area to the Houthis? No. I mean, the Houthis are terrible at governance.

I mean, they're, they're ent- they're a failure when it comes to governance. They're very good at swiftly taking territory, but this is not about the strength of the Houthis. This is not about underestimating the Houthis.

This is overestimating, uh, the STC. It's underest- it's, uh, overestimating the capabilities of these different militias and loyal tribal groups which don't work together well because they're in there for their own interests.

They're not in there for a co- united Yemeni interest. And I think the, the Emiratis and the Saudis have failed to actually build a coherent front line. And what the STC pressure has done really is

creating a two and a half Yemens, uh, in December, where the actual Yemeni governance s- supported by Saudi was somewhat squeezed in the middle. Um, and the two and a half Yemen thing was always an issue that would strengthen the Houthis. The Houthis are exploiting the vulnerability of the,

of the anti-Houthi coalition that was formed by Saudi Arabia in 2015. Andreas, do you think that the Mecca Pact is now gonna act? Pakistan and Turkey, are they gonna come to the aid of Saudi Arabia here?

Doesn't look like it. Um, I think we also sh- have to look at the bigger picture here. I think we are gaining some momentum on negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. There's a very important meeting in Muscat in, on

Monday on this issue. Um, and as that momentum builds, is the risk that what happens in the Bab el-Mandab will kind of jeopardize, uh, developments and progress made on the other front in the Strait of Hormuz. So I think the international community now is trying not to get sucked into what seems to be increasingly a Saudi war, uh,

in, i- in, in Yemen. And the Saudis seem to be left to their own devices. The Americans are not coming in, and I think Turkey and Pakistan also very hesitant to support the Saudis because they don't want to escalate further with the

Iranians or potentially jeopardize any progress that's been made or is being made at the moment in negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz. The US special representative for Yemen, he has been warning about the risk of a large scale war. Is that what you're seeing on the horizon?

Yes. I think for the Yemenis, I mean, they're the ones who will pay the ultimate cost. Um, and I think what we will see is a further deterioration of supply chains, and thereby the delivery of humanitarian aid. Already the situation in the, in the Houthi-held areas is very

dire, but also in a lot of other parts of Yemen, the situation is very dire. Um, and I think that will lead to a further collapse of sociopolitical relations, socioeconomic, uh, the socioeconomic security of people on the ground. And I don't think the

rig-rack of different militia groups and different sort of entities that are being held by different factions within Yemen, that the rig-rack that has been created mostly through external interference, will actually allow us to go back to a pathway of integration, sociopolitical integration in Yemen anytime soon.

And the, the result of that is obviously more friction, more infighting. And I think the only diplomatic way out for the Saudis really is if they endorse what has been in the making through Omani mediation in Yemen for many years, which is a comprehensive, uh,

framework agreement that would see the Houthis being part of a new political landscape that would also include the southern forces. Um, and that, getting to this deal now will be more, more di- more, more difficult because obviously the Houthis are feeling that

they're winning, when in reality, I fi- I think they will find it very hard to sustain control over the areas that they have now taken. Professor Andreas Krieg with the King's College in London. Thank you so much for joining us.