Analysis of Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia

Well, Hesham Lamaisi is a senior Yemen advisor at the European

Institute of Peace. He's also a political and

conflict analyst, joins us live now from Washington,

D.C. Good to have you with us. So you've probably heard the reports of a,

another strike, Sunday night Riyadh time on Riyadh

Airport. How is that gonna increase the pressure

now on Saudi Arabia?

It would. I mean, I've heard a lot...

I, I got a lot of calls over the past hour

telling me, "Oh, th-this

is a surprise." I'm like, "Why is it a surprise?

Houthis actually promised you that they would do that." Houthis have

escalated massively. They've crossed that red line.

Uh, and people still continue to be surprised.

You have to remember, you're dealing with a, with a militia.

You're not dealing with a state actor.

They have their own framework, their own calculations,

and, uh, uh, uh, stopping at attacking a civilian

airport is not one of those calculations.

They would... They're a maximalist group.

They, they'll do whatever they need to do to get

to the...

what they want, and they want multiple concessions from

the Saudis.

So I, I, I fear that it's not gonna stop at

airports.

Uh, it's gonna escalate further to oil

pipelines, to Aramco,

to infrastructure. But the thing is that they know very well that

having seen the reactions from the earlier attack and how the international

community was up in arms because of it, they will further attack

airports because they know that will garner much more public

reactions.

It... Last time we spoke, you said it depends, when we,

when we talked about the

possibility of US engagement or, or deeper engagement

on this, it depends on whether or not this is an isolated incident.

Well, it's increasingly looking like it's not,

or what happened on Saturday night is not an isolated incident.

How does it impact the incentive for the Trump

administration to get deeper involved in this?

There's still a bit of threshold. You have to remember,

it's not just about the

isolated incident or not. That's one of the issues,

one of the factors that

basically goes into the calculations of the administration.

But also, you have the midterms elections coming in.

They don't want to get involved in the region.

Uh, they don't want losses of American

military soldiers, uh, in the region.

They also don't want to be seen as starting yet another war, uh,

when Trump promised the end of all types of wars while being stuck

sta-still in the Strait of Hormuz. So there are multiple factors there.

But the thing is that with the Houthis escalating,

it shows that

the Houthis have become more bolder, and they've been quite honestly emboldened

by the lack of reaction from the US administration.

They think they've sidelined the US administration through the deal

that they've

signed with them last year. And as long as they don't attack directly

US assets, including US ships, they believe that the Americans would not

come to the aid of the Saudis. And they've also seen the reluctance

of other international stakeholders, um, of coming to the aid of Saudis,

hence the increased impunity of the Houthis to further

escalate, uh, the level of their attacks against

civilian ins-infrastructures

within Saudi Arabia.

Might it prompt, um,

a deeper engagement or some thinking along those lines from

the Mecca Treaty

powers?

Well, the Mecca Treaty pact is a defensive pact.

Uh, and

it would come handy in trying to protect the Saudi infrastructure.

But the thing is that you need more than that.

You need more than aerial cover.

You need more than just, uh, defending the Saudi border.

What you need is to dislodge the Houthis.

You need to take out the missile launchers.

You need to, to destroy the Houthi military capability,

especially their

drones capabilities. So it will take a lot more.

The thing is that you cannot just be on the defensive in this current conflict

because the Houthis have a proven track record.

Whenever you're on the defensive and you seek a ceasefire agreement, the

Houthis take that period of time to regroup, restock, come

back much, much, much stronger and attack you again.

The beginning of the conflict, Houthis didn't have ballistic missiles.

They didn't have cruise missiles. They didn't have drone capabilities.

They didn't have the number of soldiers that they have today.

But here we are, twelve years in, they're a lot more stronger than ever

before,

and they'll continue along the same path if we continue to try to contain the

Houthis within the Yemen borders and not treating them as a threat, not

just to Saudi, but to global security.

All of this is happening, if we look at a bigger picture for the

region, while the

US is sending more military assets and resources

to the region. Of course, that's tied to

the conflict, the, the American and Israeli began

war on Iran. I understand, you know, different dynamics.

But in the calculations of the region,

does... Is there a link here? In other words, that...

Does it show

what instigating, again, a wider conflict with,

i-in the region with Iran might produce in terms of

fallout far beyond, uh, simply the US-Iranian

engagement?

Definitely. One of the first things that the Iranians did when they were under

attack, they attacked Kuwait, they attacked Bahrain,

they attacked Saudi, they

attacked the UAE. They want to increase the cost of the

conflict, not just for US,

but also for US allies, by trying to attempt to force the GCC to

also force the Americans to back away.

And that same equation is being used today by the Houthis.

And make no mistake, the Houthis would not act if they did

not get the green light, at the very least, from the Iranians.

Yes, the Houthis maintain a level of

independence.

They have a longer leash from Iran, but they use the same playbook.

Their interests have converged. At the end of the day,

the axis of resistance wants to control both sides of the Arabian

Peninsula, with the Houthis putting a chokehold on

Bab el Mandeb and the Red Sea,

and the Iranians doing the same in the Strait of Hormuz.

That's how they control the region.

Okay, we'll leave it there. Hesham Lamaisi,

senior Yemen advisor at the

European Institute of Peace, joining us from Washington, D.C.

Thank you.

Thank you, sir.