Iran's Economic Pressures and Regional Conflicts

The Iranians are going to face really increasingly severe

economic pressures. Um, and the, the, the limits on the American

side is more political than it is economic.

I don't think four dollars gasoline is really a problem for the Americans.

So I think this will play out for a bit.

Uh, the Americans have got a long record, of course, of walking away from conflicts

which, which are painful for them.

You know, Vietnam, Lebanon in eighty-three, uh, uh, uh,

Somalia ten years later, Afghanistan under Biden.

Uh, you know, it's not as if the Americans are, are, are known for

sticking out difficult conflicts.

Um, and, and I think the countries of the region

will find their

own

modus vivendi with, uh, uh, with Iran, but not

yet. Uh, there's a struggle for power going on

within Iran.

Uh, you're seeing signs

of, uh, of an increasing militarized nature of the

Iranian regime. The civilians are being pushed to one side.

Uh, we'd had high hopes for Mohammed Bagher

Ghalibaf, but he's, uh, he's

clearly not in the center stage at the moment.

The one person who could have been, uh, central to this was Ali Larijani, but he

was deliberately assassinated by the Israelis because he posed the threat of

someone who could actually bring about, uh, uh, a peace deal, uh, which

was acceptable to both sides. So the, the outlook is not--

i-is a bit ugly in the region. I think it's gonna go on for a few months

yet, but

at some point, the economic pressures will start to tell,

uh, on the Iranian

regime.