Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Because we're in a, a deep discount relative to the high of

here

and the low down here, this is where price is trading at present.

Look at this range right here. See this right here? This

is a balanced price range.

All of this in here, I'm gonna highlight it so

that way you can see exactly what

I'm referring to.

From here

to here, all of this price action, that is a balanced price range

because price has been offered up and down,

and then it left it. Where is price trading essentially at right now?

Half of this range, right? Because it's a range that has bodies, it's

not inefficient. So in, in, in an inefficient range, which

is a gap or inefficiency, the midpoint is consequent encroachment.

Whenever there is a range that has the bodies that

are laid across the entire

range, whether it be an order block or a trading range like this,

this range is balanced. So a midpoint of that is

equilibrium. So we would measure it like this,

low to high,

and we're just almost touching what would be equilibrium there,

and we're inside of this fair value gap. So what does that mean?

What, what do we do with that information? We can see it potentially bounce.

I'm not saying it's gonna go here all the way up to here, but because we traded

into this inefficiency, there hasn't been an inefficiency at all

in here.

See that? There's no inefficiency in any of that.

This is the only one that exists in the price run from this low

all the way up to

here. This is the only one, and we're trading in it right now.

So we could see it pause, pull back up into this inefficiency.

I'd like to see... If it does, if it does trade up into this one here

between this

candle's low and this weekly high, if it were to trade up into that,

I would like

to see some of that stay open. So if it, for whatever reason, starts to trade

higher, you know, going into the end of the week

or going into the next week,

I would like to see this portion stay open.

But I'd like to see at least half of it, which would be where?

Right here, like this portion of it there.

I would not wanna see price trade up into that on a closing

basis on any daily chart at all. If it does that and stays open like

this, my mindset is we're going down here, that level down here.

So longer term, as I mentioned, that my mindset was the quarterly shift

was bearish. We wanted to see higher prices for dollar,

which is

what? Risk off. Risk off means that equities, stocks,

gold, index futures, and Forex will go where? Down.

You have to have this in the beginning if you're brand new,

if you don't know what

you're doing, if you don't how to find bias,

if you don't know what you're doing in

terms of picking a direction that makes sense for your trades

that has the highest

degree of probability behind it on a higher timeframe.

It doesn't guarantee that you're gonna be profitable in every

single trade just

because you're trading this macro in mind, macro in the sense that it's the

macro timeframe, not a macro that's a time-oriented, uh,

script

algorithmically. That's not what I'm referring to.

But you have to submit yourself to an idea that is larger than the timeframe you're

trading. 'Cause if you do that, you're using a time element in your

trading

that is... It's rooted in and founded on a larger

timeframe bias that large institutions are actually going

to promote being the weekly and the daily chart.

You know, large firms, large lending institutions, banks, their

interest in the marketplace are not looking at timeframes

that we do lots of

entries and exits on. They're looking at weekly, monthly,

and daily timeframes

because that's where the pools of liquidity are gonna be located.

That's where the inefficiencies are gonna be located, which

is the reason why I'm

teaching you this year to focus just on these two timeframes.

Price is gonna go up for buy-side liquidity,

or it's gonna go up to trade into

and reprice to in an inefficiency.

Price is either gonna drop down for sell stop or sell-side liquidity, or it's going

down to reprice to an inefficiency be- below price action.

That's the only two functions that price does.

Anything apart from that is gonna be either consolidation,

waiting for sentiment to

build up, and then markets will run to where the

majority of the

liquidity would be, so it's advantageous for smart money to

pair with them.

Anything apart from those three things is manual intervention.

That means that's the real underlying risk.

That means that no one knows what's gonna happen at that moment.

You have a black swan event, an unexpected price reaction

when a news event comes and/or market driver releases data, and it should cause

the dollar to go down, but the dollar goes up like full force.

That's manual intervention. So how do I know, 'cause I get questioned

a lot, how do I know when I'm, I'm in a trade that it might start to

potentially retrace against me? Not necessarily reverse, but how can I

avoid having to sit through a larger retracement than I'm comfortable with?

Well, you can be in partials by now.

That way you have something scaled out in the event that I'm wrong, in the event

that you're wrong by holding it for lower if you're short.

You wanna always try to find a way to fund your account

consistently and not look at it as you have to have the full pool on every

trade. That means from entry to target or terminus, where you think the price is

ultimately gonna go. In the beginning, it's unrealistic,

it's unreasonable for you

to anticipate and expect that you are gonna be able to do

that every single time,

and it's not failure for you not to be able to do that.

It's progress reaching towards that goal.