Iran's Reported Anti-Ship Missile Test and US Military Location Leaks

Iran says that, for the first time, it test-fired an anti-ship missile over a U.S. warship, and it was a new type.

So this new missile was essentially a show of force over the U.S. military's head.

What's new about it? Is it really, as Iran announced, of milestone significance?

Uh, it provided very few details, uh, but combined with the USS Lincoln's appearance at Chabahar Port in Iran, looking like a rusty ghost ship, I estimate Iran will amplify this effect.

Uh, two aspects are worth watching. First, it was from above.

Second, it was an anti-ship missile. So, compared with its previous subsonic anti-ship missiles, its range and power should have increased significantly.

Uh, if it uses a new warhead and a new destructive method, uh, there are roughly several points worth noting.

First, it could be an electromagnetic-pulse weapon. Uh, if it uses the previous semi-armor-piercing warhead, including other warheads, uh, to attack a large carrier battle group, it would have to strike from the side, and the area near the waterline would be the key target, including the deck.

If it is now being tested from above, uh, a typical trajectory would fly over the target. Uh, based on the current result, it cannot be ruled out that it is a soft-kill weapon. Previously, large quantities of explosives, including other anti- ship warheads, were used to damage targets.

Now, if it releases a high-intensity electromagnetic pulse, uh, although it cannot destroy the deck or damage the ship's structure, this micro- wave energy can damage precision electromagnetic components.

We know that missiles, destroyers, and aircraft carriers alike have large amounts of electronic equipment.

Their network systems, including core components, once struck by an electromagnetic pulse, will be permanently disabled.

So it cannot be ruled out that Iran will test a new, uh, newly energized destructive weapon equipped here.

In addition, it also cannot be ruled out that its range and power have increased.

As we have seen before, Iran's anti-ship missiles are generally subsonic cruise missiles.

So if, in the next step, ballistic anti-ship missiles with ranges exceeding one thousand kilometers are combined with new warheads, their strike effectiveness will also be significantly improved.

Recently, uh, this new Qassem missile was unveiled. This missile has a solid- fuel engine and a range of 1,200 kilometers, equipped with optical guidance.

It cannot be ruled out that it can also strike aircraft carriers.

So, from the current perspective, the shift from passive deterrence to active deterrence shows that Iran's strike capability is not limited to aircraft carriers at sea and bases in the Middle East, European bases may also become - targets of Iranian attacks.

The U.S. military has always claimed to have the world's most stringent information security system, so why has there still been such a large-scale information leak, especially a crisis involving location leaks?

Is it only related to leaks in personnel's - daily movement patterns? Well, I think this time this U.S. military information leak was mainly exposed through civilian fitness apps, mobile data, and social media.

- Public information and social media were what exposed it. So, in fact, Iran, through this public information, can determine the extent to which personnel are concentrated, including the size of bases, their locations, and so on.

Well, how should I put it, this is actually a widespread problem. That is, it exposes how, under modern warfare conditions, public information, namely open-source information, has already become a major source of intelligence.

So this also, on the other hand, exposes problems in U.S. military management - in this regard. Had they not - foreseen it? Well, obviously, it was not foreseen, it was completely unexpected.

I believe the U.S. military's entire information system is managed quite tightly, especially when it involves more sensitive matters, such as missiles, their precise locations, and so on.

Those are certainly handled very strictly.

But when it comes to these civilian things, I am afraid they did not realize it could be this serious. So this actually serves as a warning to everyone and to all the major powers that, in the future, in information warfare and intelligence warfare,

public, open-source information will likely be an important source of intelligence.