Analysis of New Russian Oreshnik Missile

On November the 21st, a new kind of missile,

known in Russian as the Oreshnik or hazelnut tree,

struck Dnipro, Ukraine.

It happened a few days after the Biden administration gave Ukraine permission to

fire ATAKMs deep into Russian territory.

So, what exactly is the Oreshnik?

Oreshnik is a new Russian intermediate range ballistic missile.

The name Oreshnik means hazelnut tree,

a potential reference to its submunitions which resemble clusters of hazelnuts.

According to Pentagon analysis,

Oreshnik is a modification of Russia's RS 26 Rubezh missile,

an intercontinental ballistic missile that has been tested since 2011.

However, there are a lot

of physical differences between the Oreshnik and Rubezh missile systems.

Oreshnik has a range of 3 500

miles and is capable of reaching speeds of Mach 10 or 12 300 kmph.

That allows it to reach most of Europe in less than 15 minutes.

The total capacity of one

nuclear powered Oreshnik complex can reach 900 kilotons,

which is 70 times more than the capacity of the atomic bombs

dropped on Japan during World War II.

But, the version of Oreshnik used against Ukraine contained no explosives.

The 36 submunitions inflicted damage purely by kinetic energy.

Ballistic missiles are propelled into the

atmosphere by rockets before descending at high speeds because of gravity's pull.

That can make them very difficult for air defense systems to intercept,

and near impossible if submunitions are released.

Our probability models for defense against missile attacks show that U S.

THAAD and Aegis systems cannot be relied on to counter Oreshnik,

and are unlikely to achieve reliability within the next 15 years,

said General Herbert McMaster, a former U S. national security advisor.

The aforementioned THAAD defense system is one of the U S.

military's most powerful anti missile weapons.

During a Safeguarding

Europe event hosted by Chatham House,

Ben Wallace, a former U K.

Secretary of State for Defense, said,

quote, we have to admit it,

they created something that NATO systems are not capable of intercepting, end quote.

This makes sense,

considering that Oreshnik missiles traveled faster than Mach 10, or 10 times

the speed of sound.

Jack Keane, chairman of the Institute for the Study of War,

who joined Fox and Friends to discuss the Oreshnik strike, said, quote,

this new missile has changed the rules of the game,

and it appears that they have other,

even more sophisticated types of missiles we're yet to witness, end quote.

If Oreshnik is impossible to intercept using current missile defense systems,

and future systems unlikely to do the job of defending NATO countries in the

next 15 years at least, then who's to blame?

It looks like the use of Oreshnik has exposed NATO's inability to

deter and defend against potential adversaries.