Analysis of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Take a close look at these two photos.

Thirty years ago, in 1999, on August

31st, Russia and Chechnya signed a peace

agreement.

Russia had failed to destroy Chechnya's independence by force,

so it signed a peace agreement.

Three years later, in 1999, Russia invaded again.

Russia has used those three years of peace to prepare for revenge.

Chechnya was destroyed by war. It was economically

isolated, politically destabilized, and largely

abandoned by outside world. And so Moscow

has used this strategically to prepare for a second invasion.

When Russia returned, it finished what it had failed in the

first war.

I hope that you understand by now the analogy

between Ukraine and Russia's war today,

and Chechnya's and Russian war in

1996.

And this is why Ukraine cannot allow

to

be forced to sign a peace agreement on Russia's terms.

A ceasefire will allow Russia to rebuild its army while

Ukraine could be pressured to, uh, demobilize.

Western allies may be pressured to stop any aid to Ukraine.

And the world gradually would move on simply hoping that Russia would not

return. But that's not what happened. We know this from history.

Yes, Ukraine needs peace, and trust me, Ukrainians need

peace more than anybody else. But they need peace that will

leave Ukraine with securities that will prevent

Russia from invading for the second time.

Now, remember, this is not the first time

that Russia has invaded Ukraine.

In 2014, they annexed Crimea, and before that,

there were more than a dozen wars that Russia has waged against Ukraine

throughout the history. So yes, Ukraine needs

peace, but it needs peace that will not--

that will force Russia not to ever, ever attack

again.