Geopolitical Analysis of US and China

All of what I am saying is we're in a

fundamental change of world history. It's happened.

The Western dominance ended around twenty-five years

ago.

The idea in Trump's head

that the US dominates is about a hundred years out of date.

So is Trump on almost everything.

It doesn't make the situation safe.

It means there's actually a very big gap between

the political perceptions of American

policymakers and the world as it is today, and

that gap is very dangerous because the US

policymakers,

and especially the President of the United States, believe the US

still runs the show and believes that the US is still

so powerful that it can dictate the terms to the rest of the

world. And that's why he thinks he can win the

tariff

wars, the trade wars, the technology wars, and so forth.

All of this, in my view, is

wrong 'cause he didn't read Emerging Asia,

so he doesn't know, uh, what happened.

He doesn't understand the reality of, uh, our world

today. The US is only about fourteen

percent of world output. It's about twelve percent of

world trade,

and it, it does not have a chokehold that I can see

on any major technology, uh, whether it is

semiconductors or artificial intelligence or

biotechnology or any other area. It has many

advanced technologies, but no chokehold on these

technologies. So I believe the world

continues to converge. The biggest danger in the

world is that the instability leads

to conflict because conflict is devastating,

especially in the nuclear age. It's by far the biggest risk we

face is stupidity leading to war.

And that China has avoided. The United States has

not avoided that. China's wisdom has been to stay out of

all wars for decades. And in fact, the last

war China was involved in was in 1979 for one

month, uh, in, uh, a spat with Vietnam,

but before that,

also no wars for a long time. So that's

part of China's success, is that it has avoided, uh,

overt conflict while the United States has been in nonstop conflict.

And the mindset in the United States is for more conflict because the US

thinks it

can win, but it keeps losing these conflicts.

So that's how I see the geopolitics and the economics

related. The world has changed, but the American

mindset has not yet changed. Thank you very much.