Analysis of Houthi Attacks in Riyadh

I wanna learn more about all of this now with, uh,

Hasham Al-Omaisi, who's joining us live from Washington.

He is a conflict analyst. Uh, thank you so much

for... A conflict analyst, rather, and senior Yemen advisor with the European

Institute of Peace. Thank you so much

for joining us this morning, Hasham.

Uh, uh, I mean, we're looking at these images, of course,

an attack right in the

heart of Riyadh on its airport. Uh, this is a significant

escalation on a civilian target. What could the

Houthis possibly have to gain from such a horrifying

attack?

Well, uh, the Houthis, uh, wanted to raise the cost, uh,

the, uh, of the Saudi involvement, uh, in supporting the Yemeni government.

They wanna create an economic and psychological, uh, pressure.

They also wanna gain negotiating leverage.

They wanna compensate for the battlefield setbacks of the past, uh, two weeks.

They wanna deter further Saudi escalation on the one hand, but they also

wanted to impose, um, an aviation blockade,

which they promised for the

past month. Uh, they, their equation is an airport for an airport.

If Sana'a Airport remains closed, they in turn will close all

Saudi, uh, airports. Um, and in doing so, they're forcing this

calculus where they wanna force Riyadh to choose between

continuing its military campaign in Yemen and protecting

its economic and civilian infrastructure, and this is one of the reasons they're

targeting also Aramco. They're targeting also the

electricity grid in Medina and other locations across Riyadh

and across

other cities in, in Saudi Arabia.

And when you talk about that calculus, again, you said they're trying to force a

calculus here for Saudi Arabia in continuing its war

on Yemen. I have to ask about Iran in that.

Of course, the Houthis are a proxy of Iran.

How involved do you think Iran was?

Do you think they knew about this? Are the Houthis simply acting on their

own?

What is Tehran's calculus here?

Oh, they definitely knew. The Iranians definitely knew.

The thing is that, of course, the Houthis have a bit of a longer leash

from Iran.

They have their own objectives, but they use the same playbook.

And you have to remember that the Iranians, uh,

wanted to control the state of Homs

on one side of the Arabian Peninsula, while the Houthis, um, their

extended tentacle, uh, controls the Red Sea, uh, through Bab

el-Mandab. And, uh, they won't do anything without informing

first the

Iranians, and the Iranians always, uh, they, they wanna have this

deniability by saying the Houthis are extremely independent.

They are independent to a degree, but they follow the directions of the

Iranians, and the Iranians have a vested interest in

increasing the

cost of the conflict on the whole of GCC, not just Sad- or Saudi Arabia, since the

beginning of the conflict in February.

And Houthis are following in the same, uh, footsteps by

increasing the economic cost on the Saudis for their involvement in the campaign

in Yemen by supporting the Yemeni government.

If I may continue w- with your description of the calculus

here, because I think

that's so important. This is such a strategic chessboard,

a deadly one,

if you will, but indeed it is all about the calculus.

And the other nation that we have to ask about in that is,

of course, the United

States. The US has so far been reluctant to get

too

involved in this war. It's provided intelligence,

it's provided logistical support,

but it's refused to carry out airstrikes even as the

kingdom requests those. Could this change the US position?

Well, hopefully.

The thing is that the United States signed a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis

last year,

and the Houthis ever since have grown very comfortable,

uh, in basically, uh, setting this

scene where they could do whatever they want.

As long as they don't attack US ships in the Red Sea or the Arab Sea or the Indian

Ocean, they're safe from US airstrikes, which are quite

devastating for the Houthis. And in doing that, they're putting the

squeeze on the Saudis, uh, knowing that the Unit- the US administration

is reluctant to join the fighting.

But if that should change, and it should change,

Houthis would have to

recalculate, and they would reconsider similar attacks

like

today's because they know they don't, they don't have to deal only with

the Saudis. They also have to deal with the US Army.

So let me dig into that a little bit deeper here,

because President Donald Trump

said on Saturday that he does plan to speak with the Saudi

Crown Prince Mohammed

bin Salman. What could come of that phone call?

What do you imagine that Mohammed bin Salman will ask for,

and what would Trump offer besides condolences?

Well,

honestly, uh, the Saudis have also reached out,

not just the US.

They've reached out to multiple, uh, countries.

They've just signed the Mecca Pact, uh, to form a defensive force

with Turkey and Pakistan as well. They've sought support,

and they're getting some

support from the French. They're getting some support from the

Brits.

But the biggest ally is the United States, and the United States needs to step up.

Uh, the United States, uh, uh, in the past has provided air support.

Uh, recently they said they'll provide also

intelligence support and some

logistical support, but they need to up the ante a little bit.

I, I imagine, uh, Mohammed bin Salman is gonna ask for more than just

intelligence support. They need, uh, to protect against, uh,

the missiles and the ballistic missiles and the cruise missiles that are coming

from Houthi-controlled areas. They need that kind of air cover, but they

also wanna expand their airstrike capabilities against targets

on the ground inside Yemen, uh, to find, locate, and

destroy, uh, the, uh, rocket launchers, but also, and

destroy, they need also bunker busters to destroy

the stockpiles that the Houthis

are hiding in mountain ranges, and they need the US support for that.

So I imagine Mohammed bin Salman is gonna ask Trump for that.

I understand that the US administration is reluctant to get involved in another

quagmire in the Middle East, especially ahead of the midterms.

But after today's attack, I think there's, there should be a change

of heart.

Hasham Al-Omaisi there in Washington on the deadliest attack in

the kingdom in nearly a decade on an airport right in the

capital that the country is still reeling from.

Thank you so much for putting that into context for us.

Thank you for having me.