Trading Strategies and Market Analysis

On the fifteen-minute timeframe, this is gonna give me all of the

salient points of liquidity that I believe is gonna be pertinent to

the session

that I'm gonna trade or about to trade, and it also will have the built-in

advantage of showing me the daily levels that I'd be interested in if I'm just

gonna trade the, the full daily range.

If I wanna get the, the lion's portion of

that full daily range, whether it be an

up day or a down day, I can determine those points of liquidity

on the

fifteen-minute timeframe. And I can also see all of the

pertinent imbalances. We start the day at midnight,

New York local

time. That's the beginning of the new day.

What does the London session do between two o'clock and five o'clock in the

morning? What's the market do? It drops. This here is a Judas swing.

A Judas swing is a fake price run for the express purposes of

taking traders out of potentially profitable traders' position being

long in this case, or to put them into the opposite

direction because there's always gonna be traders out there that trade a breakout.

The idea of focusing on a bias that is bullish on the daily

chart, weekly chart, and monthly chart, we're expecting higher prices.

So because of that, in my mind, I wanna see what price does

between midnight going down into two o'clock.

Below that low is gonna be what? Sell stops. Someone's going long there.

So if we're bullish and we see that they did in fact take out traders

that had

stops below here at a time of day when it creates the high

or low of the day,

not all the time, not all the time, most the time.

Now, because it does that very thing here, right at three thirty, and that's the

low of the day. When it creates that low, we wanna see some kind of

displacement to the upside because if it does do that, that's indicating the

algorithm is flashing like a billboard sign.

It's gonna go up now, so focus on seeking a premium

price. So what is a premium price? It's gonna be a short-term high

and/or a fair value gap above market price.

Between this low here to this candle here, those are the range extremes that you're

annotating. So down here when it hit the stops,

first thing in my mind is, okay,

how do we trade after that? And it should go into this gap here.

Does it do that? Absolutely, it does. Then it creates what?

Another gap here. While I'm looking at price action in

response

to this area here, I'm also now measuring the

willingness to see price find more support in

this fair value gap. But when price starts to run up in here,

it goes into this

area here and just comes into the high of that candle right there.

But the market rallies up, and it leaves this imbalance.

I'm looking at how this offered buy-side imbalance.

It's inefficient in the scope that it has not offered enough

opportunity for people to sell. It's moved one-sidedly on this

timeframe, the fifteen-minute timeframe.

So I'm anticipating price to want to do what?

Offer price on the downside or offer it through sell-side

delivery. This is buy-side delivery when price is expanding higher.

Since I've seen it price drop down here and I'm bullish

longer term, I anticipate this as a stop run.

I don't need to buy down here. So it goes down here to take the stops on

a day

when we're bullish. Does the market immediately react by going

higher after it goes

below that low? Yes, it does. And also notice where the

bodies are. See, the wicks are... They're trading down and past that low.

That's the damage. You see where the close of this candle

is here?

Yes, this candle went all the way down there

but then closed right there, and then

this candle opened, went all the way down here, past

that low again, and then

closed right there, and then we opened on this candle

and tore off.

That to me, listen, folks, listen, how do I know when to

trust a fair value gap? Well, first I have to have a bias. Okay?

Am I bullish or bearish? Because the narrative

is gonna build the idea

of whether or not I'm gonna be bullish or bearish.

The bias cannot be derived until you at least confer with

what the present narrative is. The market is long-term bullish.

We're at all-time highs. Avoid trying to pick a top.

But the body's respecting the fact that it didn't close below that low.

That tells me that this was a stop raid.

So what does that really answer? Well, it answers how do you know it's gonna not

go

through that low and keep on going? I don't know on the first candle.

I wanna wait and see when it closes. It closes here.

Then I wanna see the next candle. What does it do?

Does a little movement below that, but then the body stops there. What

is that?

At that candle's close right there, what is that? That's a swing low.

At a time when I'm bullish, at a time of the day

when it creates the low of the

day, if I'm bullish, it's knocked out traders that

are long that had sell stop

below that. So we crossed all boxes off that this

is a high

probability reversal in a da- in a day that it's likely to go higher.

So that right there is my first indication that it's a,

a very high probability

reversal point. You wait for the next candle.

Does it create a swing low? Yes.

That's also part of power three. It'll be in a book, trust me.

Oh, you're a tease, ICT. Well, I gotta do it somehow, right?

I gotta get y'all worked up. So when I see that in price action,

it gives me confidence to trust that that that was a raid on, on sell side

below that low here. And then the highest probability trade

is to

wait to see if there's displacement. I'm gonna wait for this right here.

I wanna see it dig up into... Remember this is the sell-side imbalance,

buy-side inefficiency between that candle's low and that candle's high.

I wanna see it run up into these extremes from here to here.

I wanna see how it trades there. Does it trade all the way up to and

close above halfway? Here's fifty percent of it.

Does it close above that? Yes.

So what does that tell me algorithmically?

That it's going to use this imbalance here, okay?

It's gonna use that as a draw on liquidity, and now I wanna see it do what?

Work its way back down into this gap from this candle's high and that

candle's low. This gap right here, I'm only gonna refer

to it in terms of its consequent encouragement, which

is the midpoint of that

gap, the fifty percent, and I would use that on a lower timeframe

chart to see if

it's gonna offer me an opportunity to go long.

But now we're back into this discussion right here.

So this becomes my primary focus when price shows you this

dis- this displacement to the upside, and then you wait

patiently for it to trade right back down into this candlestick's movement

higher. The market will want to offer down

close or down expansion candles, which is sell-side

delivery. It really means just simply this,

the market moved up right here one

candle. So it first started off real quick right

here, so it wants to come right

back down, and what that does, it affords smart money to now

enter to get long, accumulate long positions.

Where would they buy?

If you look at the high to the low, here's the midpoint of that big

up close candle. We went past it, yes, but, but look at where the bodies are

closing. Are they closing at or below that candlestick's high?

No. Did we trade to that candle and through it?

Yes, because we allow the wicks to do that.

So when you're using stop losses, I'm looking at where those wicks have done

the

damage prior to my entry or before I move my stop loss, and

because I know I see damage was done here, and I'm...

I know that it can overshoot this a little bit. Okay?

So if I was long down here, I... my stop loss would be jammed up underneath

these

bodies because if it was, I would've been stopped out prematurely.

So the fact that these candles are closing above the high of that candle,

which

makes this a buy-side imbalance, sell-side inefficiency fair value gap.

Trading down to that inefficiency and these candles' bodies not

closing at or below tells me that we're really gonna move higher

and attack at the very minimum these relative equal highs.