Discussion on Alberta's Economic Future

I don't know. I don't think Canada will exist in a

decade.

It's the frustration of these guys who,

ah, jeepers.

They just want to work.

They just want to take care of their families.

It seems like there's a bit of a fantasy taking place in the rest

of the country where

nobody is weaning themselves off fossil fuels.

But then number two, the expectation is that we're just going to

keep on seeing money transferred out of this province to

support other provinces, notably Quebec, at the same time as they say, we don't

want your dirty oil. That's what I think has created a lot of

resentment. And it's a resentment to the point where

if it doesn't get

resolved, I don't know that the country can survive.

You can see some of the stats yourself where they've talked about a

Western separatist party having, that doesn't even exist, having 50%

support in places like Alberta. I would think that that's

probably the next step if we can figure out how to get some

mutual respect going across the country.

Peter Zeihan wrote a book called The Accidental

Superpower, followed it up with The Absent Superpower.

But in his book, The Accidental Superpower,

he's a geopolitical analyst.

So he looks at how geography determines your

politics and determines sort of where your pecking order

is in the world. It's a fascinating book, but he had a whole chapter on Alberta.

And he said Alberta will separate and become the 51st

state of the United States. And so his contention

is that we are going to try to get

these various bills that are being put through

that will prevent development,

trying to get them passed, and we're going to fail.

We're going to try to get more pipelines built, and we're going to fail.

We're going to try to renegotiate a more fair fiscal

transfer relationship with the rest of the country, and we're going to fail.

And the only thing that is going to be at the end of that path

is so

much frustration that people are going to vote to break the

country up. And he believes that it doesn't make sense for us to go it

alone independently. But you become the 51st state,

all of a sudden you've got

access to Alaska. So you've got access to a coastline.

You're welcomed as part of the American

family. And the Americans seem to be quite happy

to develop their own

resources, especially if it means those tax dollars will now be

going to Washington

instead of Ottawa. So

I can imagine that if we can't solve this in 10 years,

I just don't know how the country can stay together.

And the country's been built on keep the money coming, Alberta.

As long as you keep the money coming, Alberta, then the country is

basically based on transfers. But the money can't keep coming if

Alberta can't keep

growing its economy. That's where the breaking point is coming.

That there will have to be at some point a realization

that the federal government is out of money.

I mean, they've been running deficits for the past

four years without any

opportunity to get back into surplus.

A large part of the reason is that they don't have the same level of

revenues to

rely on from Alberta that they used to have.

So we're already at our limit and we've got a country saying,

give us more,

but we don't want your dirty oil. And you

can't do that. So there has to be some recognition

that we're all in this

together. And I don't know what it's going to take

to get that.