Analysis of Drone Threat in Hormuz

Now, between now and the midterms,

the odds of, I think, opening Hormuz are infinitesimal,

so small as to be zero.

And why is that?

It's because the Shaheed Drone, the 136 Shaheed Drone,

which is the prime tool that Iran is using to close Hormuz,

it's about the size of a king-size mattress.

It is relatively cheap.

It's made with components, a lot like cell phone components right here.

And it has a range of between 500 and 1,200 miles.

That Shaheed Drone could be anywhere in a 500-mile

by 500-mile drone launch zone along the coast of Iran

with Hormuz at the midpoint and still hit that ship.

So that's 500 miles by 500 miles,

one and a half times the size of California.

That's a two-dimensional scale problem, but it's worse than that, Cyrus,

because there's mountains that are huge mountains, called the Zargoss Mountains,

in most of that 500 by 500-mile zone.

Think about it as the mountains are like a skyscraper,

like the Empire State Building,

except the Zargoss Mountains are 10

times the height of the Empire State Building.

And those drones, that king-size mattress can be in the basement of the Empire State Building,

it can be on the ground floor,

it could be on the 10th floor,

it could be on the 17th floor.

You get my point.

So you really have to scour this.

And then do you know how many Empire State Buildings you

can fit in that 500 by 500-mile area?

1.6 million.