0:00

There's a real chance you are not real if just five things are true.

0:05

The odds that you're real are one in a billion.

0:08

Here's how it would work. In old video games, the world behind you doesn't exist until you turn around.

0:13

A fake world could do the same thing. Far away galaxies? A painted backdrop.

0:18

The inside of a rock? Empty until you crack it open.

0:21

It doesn't need to render a whole universe.

0:23

It just needs you to believe it. Number one: a computer can make a mind.

0:28

If a mind is just what a brain does, a good enough computer could copy it.

0:32

But your brain does about 100 quadrillion calculations every second.

0:36

Do that for every human who ever lived, and you get a number with 37 zeros.

0:41

Seems impossible, unless number two is true.

0:44

Number two: technology keeps getting better and better.

0:47

80 years ago, a computer filled a whole room.

0:50

Now, it fits in your pocket. So one day, someone could wrap an entire star in computers, a Dyson sphere brain with endless energy capabilities.

0:58

That machine could run all of human history thousands of times every single second.

1:03

Number three: we don't wipe ourselves out first, but we look at the sky and see no aliens.

1:09

Maybe every civilization hits a wall, mass wars, an asteroid, a disease, and never makes it.

1:14

Then nobody's left to build the computer.

1:17

Number four: somebody actually wants to simulate one.

1:20

To a being that powerful, we're goldfish.

1:22

We could never understand why they would even want to run it.

1:25

Try explaining a video game to a goldfish. I bet you can't.

1:28

But number five is the one that gets you.

1:30

Number five: if simulations exist, there won't be just one.

1:34

Why run one when you can run a billion, each one packed with people who think they're real?

1:39

So for every real world or real universe, there could be a billion fake ones.

1:43

Now, pick any one at random. The odds they're the real one?

1:47

One in a billion, and you have no way to tell which one you are in.

1:51

So here's the scary part. We're already building fake worlds with little people inside.

1:55

The day we build one where they think they're real is the day we find out we're probably in one too.

End of transcript · 391 words

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