Analysis of Ukraine-Russia Conflict Dynamics

But the, the, the Tomahawk thing, um, is really crazy.

And in the United States, you have all sorts of media outlets

saying, you know,

Trump is denying Zelensky a potentially

game-changing, uh, weapon and, you know.

Um, utterly false and utterly ridiculous.

Uh, it's not a game-changing weapon any more

than all the other

weapons that were said to be game-changing weapons, uh, have not changed the

game. We've heard the same thing when the Ukrainians asked for

HIMARS, when they asked for Patriot systems,

when they asked

for, um, ATACMS and F-16s. Uh, they haven't

changed the game. Um, and basically,

the war

is lost, and the sooner that the Ukrainians come

to this realization, uh, the better off they'll be.

And Putin, uh, seems to me, um, to

have a reasonable,

um, deal in place.

Uh, Ukraine, uh, cannot join NATO, but Ukraine can join the

EU. That seems absolutely, um, a

fair, uh, a fair bargain to me.

But they also have, also have to concede land.

Of course. Of course they do. But again, the land

that, um, they will be, um, ceding, uh,

they themselves have been attacking since 2014.

The Ukrainians are being a bit disingenuous here.

They want the, um... They, they, they claim to want the land in the

Donbas, Eastern Ukraine, but they don't want the ethnic Russian

citizens on that land. So, um, they've been doing

everything that they can to disenfranchise, uh,

those people for the past 30

years. So it's time to be honest. Putin, in a way, is

giving the Ukrainians what they want, which is a Ukraine for

ethnic Ukrainians. Uh, and that would be a way to get

rid of, which they've wanted to do, uh, the ethnic Russians.

It's, um,

not something that is often said in public,

but it happens to be the truth.

And James, when you say the war is lost, what about reports that Russia's on the

brink, that any further pressure that can be applied to them will lead to

them

running out of money, they can't continue this, uh,

incredibly vicious

assault that seems to have escalated in recent months on Ukraine indefinitely?

In fact, the opposite is true. Um, my

sources, uh, tell me that the ratio of, uh,

Ukrainian to Russian dead is 36 to one.

So y- it's the Ukrainians who are approaching,

um, a million or so, uh, casualties.

Um, the, the, the, the numbers that people are, are told by

the, you know, mainstream media in the United States,

particularly The New York

Times and The Washington Post, bear about as much resemblance to

reality as the numbers that the government told

Americans, uh, what was going on in the Vietnam War.

So the war of attrition that Russia did begin

in 2022, um, it has been largely

successful. And, and it seems to me that it's Ukraine that's on the brink

of disaster, uh, not Russia.

Okay. Fascinating stuff. James Cardin, we really appreciate your time on the show

this morning. Uh, James is a former US State Department advisor on

Russia policy.

Thank you.