Predictions on AGI and Longevity

I made a prediction,

uh, that we would reach AGI, artificial general

intelligence, uh, by 2029, within 30

years.

You think we're still on track for 2029?

I think that's probably pessimistic.

Uh...

You keep pushing this up.

Well, Mu- uh, Elon Musk says it's gonna be two years.

Other people are saying three or four years. Five years

is probably conservative.

By the early 2030s, we will reach something called

longevity escape velocity.

Which is as time goes by, the, the risk of your dying

will not go up, so we won't actually succumb to

aging.

Does that mean we live forever?

It's not forever. I mean, you could take a 20-year-old who has

nothing wrong with

him, and you could compute his longevity as

being many,

many decades, and he could die tomorrow, right? So...

An accident.

Yeah. You could also get a disease we haven't

cured yet.

It's, it's not a guarantee. It just means that we won't

increase our chance of dying as time goes by.

What, what age do you think you'll live to?

And what, what age do you wanna live to?

Uh, why would I ever wanna die? I mean,

people only choose to die if they're in, uh,

insufferable pain-

Mm-hmm

... physical, psychological, spiritual.

But if they're, uh, of right mind, people wanna live.

And so there's no reason I would get to a point and say, "Well, I, I don't wanna

live anymore." Uh, so I'd like to live forever.