Discussion on October Rate Hike Odds

So, um, 45% odds of an October rate

hike now. That obviously is a number-

No way

... that changes all the time.

Yeah.

45% in October?

After November.

Up from a 21% chance.

They're gonna hike-

It was, yeah, it was 20-

... they're gonna hike in the month before the

midterms?

I said, I said it was 22.

22.

22.

Yeah, 22%.

I, I do not, I do not see that.

I know you don't like headline-

I, I do-

... but if this is now the biggest jump since

May, it is outpacing

workers' wages. We've talked about how real wages for now,

average hourly earnings for September are down 7/10 of 1% year

over year. Again, they're just, I agree that it is

a blunt tool. We will hear from Kevin Warsh Thursday

night our

time. He's speaking at the IMF over in Bangkok.

Mm.

I probably... He doesn't do forward guidance.

He probably won't talk about this, but maybe he'll hint at the number of

items in

the basket that are over a 2 or a 3%.

Right.

And give us some clues to sort of the directionality of this Fed, whether

it's October or December.

Somebody told me, who knows Kevin Warsh, who doesn't work here, that

Kevin Warsh is a much bigger hawk than people think.

But has he got the

cojones to hike or, or to vote for a hike

before the midterms?

Yeah, in October, we shall see.

I say my prediction would be no.

All right-