Analysis of Yemen's Political Landscape

And joining me now from London is Andreas Krieg, associate professor

at the School of Security Studies at King's College London.

He's also CEO of the political risk firm MENA

Analytica. Andreas, what's your read now of where

we currently stand? Do you think the government forces

are regrouping to

make an assault on Houthi positions?

I think we have been there before. We've been under an umbrella of

narratives being pushed, particularly by the Emiratis,

but also partially by the

Saudis of, that suggest that there is a very strong, a

united, cohesive front line against the Houthis

being built.

Uh, when in reality, I think the narrative has really been

undermined very,

very strategically over the last, uh, 48 hours or so.

What we're seeing now is a h- picture of a highly fragmented

anti-Houthi front, uh, where different patrons have

bought their loyalties through money, uh, where people,

uh, and also militias have been assembled, uh, to

basically compete over domestic constituencies in the

south of Yemen

without actually ever focusing on, uh, the Houthis in the north.

And I think in particularly, I would say that what Abu Dhabi has done

over the last

couple of, uh, years, or the last 10 years,

by building its own networks in the

south at the expense of Saudi Arabia, has led to a

fragmented sort of front that has now led to

polarization. And a, and, and clearly has shown as

well that they don't have a unity of effort or a unity of force.

They lack a clear vision, and they're up against the Houthi front on

the other

side, which is extremely swift, very cohesive, which has a very clear

objective, and unfortunately has been able to exploit

the

weakness and vulnerability of the southern forces.

And also, the other issue that I think we need to highlight here

is that a front

on a more central parts of Yemen are probably not necessarily

in the interest of the international community.

I think what the world is looking at at the moment is what

has been the full collapse on the west coast, which has been a strategic,

very, very strategic point and asset, uh, particularly around Tariq Saleh.

And the fact that his forces have lost there is something that they can't

compensate by any so- any gain actually in central Yemen.

So do you think that the Houthis have actually been underestimated, given

the fact that the government forces in the end, they just basically packed up and,

and left, and handed over this area to the Houthis?

No. I mean, the Houthis are terrible at governance.

I mean, they're, they're ent- they're a failure

when it comes to governance.

They're very good at swiftly taking territory, but this

is not about the strength

of the Houthis. This is not about underestimating the Houthis.

This is overestimating, uh, the STC.

It's underest- it's, uh, overestimating the capabilities of these

different militias and loyal tribal groups

which don't work together well

because they're in there for their own interests.

They're not in there for a co- united Yemeni interest.

And I think the, the Emiratis and the Saudis have failed to actually

build a

coherent front line. And what the STC pressure has done really

is

creating a two and a half Yemens, uh, in December, where the actual

Yemeni governance s- supported by Saudi

was somewhat squeezed in the middle.

Um, and the two and a half Yemen thing was always an issue that would

strengthen the Houthis. The Houthis are exploiting the vulnerability of the,

of the anti-Houthi coalition that was formed by Saudi Arabia in

2015.

Andreas, do you think that the Mecca Pact is now gonna act?

Pakistan and Turkey, are they gonna come to the aid of Saudi

Arabia here?

Doesn't look like it. Um, I think we also sh-

have to look at the bigger

picture here. I think we are gaining some momentum on negotiations

over the Strait of Hormuz. There's a very important meeting in Muscat

in, on

Monday on this issue. Um, and as that momentum builds, is the risk

that what happens in the Bab el-Mandab will kind of jeopardize, uh,

developments and progress made on the other front in the Strait of Hormuz.

So I think the international community now is trying not to get

sucked into what seems to be increasingly a Saudi war, uh,

in, i- in, in Yemen. And the Saudis seem to be left to their

own devices.

The Americans are not coming in, and I think Turkey

and Pakistan also very hesitant

to support the Saudis because they don't want to escalate further with the

Iranians or potentially jeopardize any progress that's been made or

is being made at the moment in negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz.

The US special representative for Yemen, he has been warning about the

risk of a large scale war. Is that what you're

seeing on the horizon?

Yes. I think for the Yemenis, I mean, they're the ones who will pay the ultimate

cost. Um, and I think what we will see is a further deterioration

of supply chains, and thereby the delivery of humanitarian

aid.

Already the situation in the, in the Houthi-held areas is very

dire, but also in a lot of other parts of Yemen,

the situation is very

dire. Um, and I think that will lead to a further collapse of

sociopolitical relations, socioeconomic, uh, the socioeconomic

security of people on the ground. And I don't think the

rig-rack of different militia groups and different sort of

entities that are being held by different factions within Yemen, that

the rig-rack that has been created mostly through external interference,

will actually allow us to go back to a pathway of integration,

sociopolitical integration in Yemen anytime soon.

And the, the result of that is obviously more friction,

more infighting.

And I think the only diplomatic way out for the Saudis really is if they

endorse what has been in the making through Omani mediation in

Yemen for many years, which is a comprehensive, uh,

framework agreement that would see the

Houthis being part of a new political landscape that would also

include the southern forces. Um, and that, getting to this deal now will be

more, more di- more, more difficult because obviously the

Houthis are feeling that

they're winning, when in reality, I fi- I think they will find it very hard to

sustain control over the areas that they have now taken.

Professor Andreas Krieg with the King's College in

London. Thank you so much for joining us.