Discussion on Ukraine Conflict Perspectives

Can, can we just drill down on Ukraine just a

little bit?

And I asked this question on Monday.

We had a panel of, uh, Western diplomats speaking of Ukraine,

and I asked the

question: Why is it that, and I- from my admittedly Western

perspective, Ukraine is clear-cut.

One country, a big country, invaded its neighbor, trying to force

its neighbor to adopt certain policies, et cetera.

We would think the rest of the world would be on board with that.

You can't change borders by invading another country.

But when I go around, when I talk to Southeast Asian friends,

they kind of are more

like, "Yeah, well, Russia had security interests." They don't

really care.

That's a European problem.

What's, what's your perspective as a Singaporean,

Southeast Asian, but

also someone who knows the world about why it is that this idea

that the Ukraine war is a clear case of aggression for people

like me

is not so much for a lot of other people?

And to you from the West, I must recall Kosovo-

Mm-hmm

... which was part of, uh, Serbia-

Mm-hmm

... uh, which was broken from Serbia by force.

Mm-hmm.

And Belgrade was bombed. There was a war which lasted, I think, two,

three months-

Mm-hmm

... to break Kosovo off-

Mm-hmm

... from Serbia.

Mm-hmm.

Uh,

so what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

I used to sit next to Lavrov at regional meetings because Singapore is

S, Russia is R.

We are permanent neighbors.

And he was very upset

by what the West did on Kosovo.

Uh, so I don't think you can argue against

Russia's intervention in Ukraine

on the basis of a principle.

Now, Singapore is, of course, upset.

When you see a small guy being beaten up, we being smaller still,

immediately sympathize with the smaller guy.

But sometimes when you see a conflict,

it's important to watch the entire video.

And when you watch the entire video, you say, "Oh, well, it's actually not so

simple."

And if you want to find a solution,

you better watch the entire video and not just depend on one snapshot.

Mm-hmm.

Ask yourself,

why is it Lenin,

Putin, Zelensky have the same first name?

Who was Vladimir?

Vladimir was the Prince of Kiev,

who, when he was baptized, had to decide between the Latin rite

and the Byzantine rite

at a time when the church was still united before the Great Cism of

ten

fifty-four.

In a famous passage, he wrote that he was so beguiled by the richness

of Byzantium,

so he became Orthodox.

The Greek world became Orthodox, the Greek world

which Rome never fully absorbed.

And that division between Roman and Greek world persists till today.

And Kiev was where Muscovy became Orthodox.

Now, you can't escape the fact that Ukraine has always

been in between. If you look at the

atlases of Europe

fifty years ago, a hundred years ago, a hundred and fifty years ago,

the borders have been shifting up and down.

So Ukraine

is between where tectonic plates meet.

And

I was convinced that Russia would move by the end of twenty

twenty-one. I told my children

because I read Putin's common history of Ukraine and

Russia

written in July. It was, to me, a quite a good piece of historical

writing.

But when I mentioned it to my American friends, they laugh at me, they sneered at

me. They said, "He's an evil man. How can you read him?"

Well, what, what can I say?

But, uh... And when he moved,

I was sure there would be... that Ukraine will be partitioned,

and it'd be

partitioned for decades, the way the Korean Peninsula has been

partitioned,

the way Kashmir has been partitioned, the way Cyprus has been partitioned.

It may be possible after two, three years to have a ceasefire,

but there'll be no peace agreement.

And this partitioning of Europe

is opening a new chapter in the history of all of Europe

and marks a limit to EU expansion

and maybe to NATO expansion.

And in the nature of these things, when you push

and the wall doesn't fall,

part of that force goes back into you,

opening up cracks in your own society.

So I ask myself, if I were a German

and I read Seymour Hersh,

well, of course, I cannot openly say that I believe what he said,

but I read him.

You'd be thinking,

"Why are we in this position?"

You are French, why are you in this position?

If we are not careful,

we will see conditions which

will lead to a resurgence of the right,

of the AFD in Germany,

of Le Pen in France.

So Europe is in a very difficult position,

and the lack of clarity about Europe's future is very troubling.

What is the end point? Let us say in the coming months,

the Ukrainians make great advances.

Where do you stop? Do you know when to stop?

If you don't stop, then Russia will be forced to escalate.

If the opposite happens, in the next few months Russia makes great

gains,

and it doesn't know when to stop,

then NATO will be forced to escalate

one more cycle.

I hope both sides will have a wisdom to know when to stop

so that there is

some stability,

and the stopping point will lead to a partition of Euro- of Ukraine.