Shaul Arieli: Two-State Solution Still Possible Despite Settlements

On his second reserve duty, Dr. Shaul Arieli.

Hello.

Hello.

Good afternoon, head of the research group Tamarur,

and as someone who's known you for a quarter of a century,

I can attest that you are probably one of the greatest experts

on what happens in the territories.

Now they're drafting a new resolution

of the Security Council,

that talks about a path to a Palestinian state.

Israelis look at it and say,

Tell me, what are they talking about,

are they even in touch with reality?

I'm asking you as someone experienced on the ground,

is this at all, given the current situation on the ground,

practical, is it realistic,

say Israel agreed,

is this something that can be done

or have the outposts and settlements already spread

and there's no chance to create continuity.

This is the map you provided us, right?

Yes, without a doubt.

The territorial and demographic feasibility

still exists.

And we can today,

with land swaps of less than four percent,

preserve 80 percent of the Israelis

who live beyond the Green Line…

Still?

Under Israeli sovereignty.

And anyone, of course, can check

the blocs drawn there.

Still 80 percent of the Israelis

Those living beyond the Green Line

will remain under Israeli sovereignty.

Of course there is also a solution to the security issue.

which is, of course, related to demilitarization,

to a ban on military alliances,

and also to the still unresolved issue of Jerusalem.

It is possible to establish two capitals in Jerusalem.

and to preserve Israeli territorial continuity

and Palestinian territorial continuity.

And of course, a solution to the refugee issue.

That is to say, at this level

of spatial-physical feasibility,

this is possible.

What you pointed out, of course,

At the outset, the great challenge

that lies before us is, of course,

the political challenge.

Because in Israel there is total refusal

not only of the two-state solution,

but also of any renewal

of the political process.

And on the Palestinian side we know

about the enormous difficulties they have

regarding governance, the split, and so on.

But this attempt

that you mentioned in the declarations,

on outposts and on new settlements,

this is Smotrich's attempt to try

and to cement in the Israeli consciousness

that, in fact, the State of Israel has passed

the event horizon

and is plunging backward into the dark

of a single state, and therefore annexation is preferable.

But let's talk…

Let's talk for a second about the claim

by Smotrich.

Smotrich basically claims that he brought

the territory, more or less,

to an irreversible state,

that the number of outposts and settlements

and the declaration of state lands.

Whether we want it or not,

and it will be impossible to do that —

one state and all that.

And your very interesting claim,

which you've been making for years,

and every time you have to prove it again,

including with data from the past year,

is that in everything related

to the people test,

no new people come

to live in the settlements.

Not only are no new people coming,

in four of the last six years

there has been a negative migration balance

among the Israeli population

in the Judea and Samaria area.

That means more Israelis are leaving

than Israelis are arriving.

If 15 years ago

about four thousand additional people used to arrive

each year from within Israel,

Every year from within Israel,

this year is set to end

with almost two thousand fewer people.

What's actually holding...

And they're leaving?

Sorry?

And they're leaving?

That come, let's say, two thousand,

are more leaving than coming?

Yes. That means,

The balance is that fewer are entering than leaving.

But the natural increase…

But the natural increase…

Exactly. But here's the point,

Everyone is talking about the natural increase.

But we must remember that the natural increase

is mostly concentrated

in the Haredi cities,

Modi'in Illit and Beitar Illit,

which are located on the Green Line

and in all permanent-status scenarios

they will be annexed to Israel.

As we've seen,

there is an increase in the proportion of Haredim

among the settlers.

People no longer recognize it,

but almost 40 percent

of what is defined as settlers

or residents,

are Haredi, 38 percent,

and in the proportion of seculars there is a negative change

of all time

because of that exact same phenomenon.

That's right.

Moreover, in any agreement,

even in the most restrictive scenarios,

90 percent of Haredim

who live today in Judea and Samaria

will be annexed to Israel.

Now, what does Smotrich do?

He performs technical maneuvers.

For example, he declares

all kinds of new settlements

that are actually neighborhoods

in existing communities.

This doesn't add any housing units.

It only provides another platform

for channeling funds.

He, for example, claims

that new settlements need to be built

for the settlers, because they are Israelis

in everything.

But where does he build the settlements

of his, with a massive budget

of seven billion shekels?

from the mountain ridge and eastwards,

at a distance of more than

ten and 20 kilometers

from the Green Line.

But what can be done

when 85 percent of Israelis

live west of that line?

They live right along the Green Line.

We're throwing away billions

that aren't being used for anything.

Also the mirror farms that were established.

Close to 130 mirror farms were set up.

Do you know how many families that is?

Maybe 200 families

and the hilltop youth, no more than that.

Because that's the policy

that they want carried out now.

Shaul Arieli, I recommend to all of you,

I don't know if you are still

doing field tours,

but if so, join the tour.

You'll get a real glimpse

of what's happening there.

Thank you very, very much.

Thank you.