Shaul Arieli on West Bank Settlement Migration and the Two-State Solution

The population living in the Judea and Samaria areas is decreasing, according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics; coalition parties want to impose sovereignty there, and the Knesset even voted on it.

The President of the United States made clear it will not happen. Here is a reminder.

Things were clear, at least when they were said. We welcome Dr. Shaul Arieli, Lieutenant Colonel (res.), a researcher of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Thank you for joining us.

What do you see in the data we mentioned, published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, regarding Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria?

We have been following these figures for quite a few years, and you can see a trend of a sustained decline in what is called the overall migration balance of Israelis in the Judea and Samaria area.

That is to say, arrivals versus departures, both in relation to movements within Israel and to movements abroad, and we see a decline that in recent years has reached negative migration.

In other words, more Israelis are leaving the settlements for the rest of Israel and for abroad than are moving in.

This phenomenon is especially pronounced in Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) cities: in four of the last six years there has been a negative migration balance there of hundreds, and this year even more than a thousand.

This is also evident, of course, in the city of Ma'ale Adumim — in Ma'ale Adumim we have not only a negative migration balance but also negative annual growth.

That means today there are fewer people than there were two years ago in Ma'ale Adumim, and the same is true for the local councils and even for the two large regional councils, Shomron and Mateh Binyamin.

I must point out that when he brought this to my attention I was very surprised, and that is why I asked him to come here to explain it to all of us.

This is because the public assumption is that the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, by holding the defense ministry and thus being responsible for the Settlement Administration, is acting and building infrastructure to create a situation that would be irreversible for a two-state solution — a great deal of infrastructure, many roads — but you say that maybe those things exist, yet there are no people.

First of all, let's get to the bottom line. The bottom line — actually, what I'm trying to say — is that the option the State of Israel was given in 1993 to settle the conflict and resolve it through a two-state solution is not a sham, as Smotrich claims.

And the reality on the ground, at the spatial level and at the demographic level — information about this appears in all the data that we in the Tamrur Group collect, also from Halmas, also from the Interior Ministry, and also from the National Insurance Institute. I'll give you just one example, for instance: Smotrich's announcement to establish 50 new settlements is a technocratic bluff.

He simply took neighborhoods in existing settlements and declared them to be settlements, to be legally recognized settlements.

So you're essentially saying that the two-state solution still has viability, in the sense of "we're here and they're there." On the face of it, that shouldn't be a problem.

In a sense — I repeat — in terms of spatial and demographic feasibility, that feasibility exists. Israel can transfer to Palestine only four percent in total and retain sovereignty over 80% of the Israelis who live beyond the Green Line, and the same applies to all the other arrangements.

Because when you look at the bottom lines, and you see, for example, the demographic balance between Jews and Arabs in the West Bank, or the balance of built-up area, or land ownership, there is still a clear Palestinian dominance in all these parameters. What don't we have? Today we do not have political feasibility.

But political feasibility might exist, by the way. Is it possible that everything you're saying now is known to Donald J. Trump in the White House when he plans his grand schemes?

We are not going to adopt this solution tomorrow. It requires preparation, but when we look at the ground it is indeed so, and we must remember that the international community fully supports this.

80 percent of UN member states recognized a Palestinian state. We heard President Trump, we know the positions of the entire Arab world, especially Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, which are most relevant to us, and since October seventh they have significantly increased the number of statements supporting a two-state solution by orders of magnitude.

Therefore, the challenge stands before us.

Okay, let's assume we'll be able to handle it. Any comment, Ben Ron?

You've been the most lenient of anyone who's been on the show so far.

So it's time to say thank you. Thank you very much, Dr. Shaul Arieli, for coming. We'll go to the final commercial break and after it.